Enterprise Specialized Skilled Personnel, The Total Amount And Structure Of Demand Prediction

Following the trend of globalization in the 21st century, the competitive scope among firms extended rapidly, and the competitive degree intensified heavily. Under this background, the strategic value of human resource management was elevated increasingly in corporations, and the human resource plan, especially the forecast study for talented person, became more and more important. In order to guarantee the support for business with managerial practice, every firm must keep eyes on the changeable environment constantly and design corresponding human resource management strategy to deal with them, which need the company to pay special attention to the problem of talented person.The goal of human resource plan is to let organization forecast its need of human resource management in the future and identify the practice that can help them to meet these needs. Research shows that the companies, which carried out human resource plan, performed well than those that didn't. And the supply-demand forecast for talented person is a very important part of human resource plan.In fact, this thesis is a part of the study for talented person forecast of the whole human resource plan, which the writer took part in. The program aims at studying and forecasting the total number of the staff and all kinds of structure ratio relationship of internal personnel in the state-owned corporation, including three aspects—management administrative personnel, professional technology personnel, and special skill personnel. So the thesis emphasizes on the application of method, that is quantitative analysis. On the basis of talented person forecast in practice, this thesis points out the issues that A company should notice and resolve, and lay emphasis on the analysis of the total number and structure of special skill personnel, according to the analysis of the actualities and existed problems of A company's HRM..The thesis mainly applies the method of quantitative analysis, combining with qualitative analysis, to forecast the number of the staff in the future. According to a series of data analysis, the thesis gets the changing situation of the total number of the staff, the total number of special skill personnel, and the structure of special skill personnel. Aiming at the difficulties during forecast, the thesis gives some effectivesuggestions.The innovations of the thesis are: (1) making the forecast of the total number and structure at the same time, trying to break through the difficulty of structure forecast;(2) applying many quantitative methods to make the total number forecast, including curve fitting, regression equation, gray system GM (1,1) model, and comparing the results of these methods. (3) Applying correlation analysis, personnel ratio method, and rational and fixed number of persons analyses method to do structure analysis, especially, it is not common to combine the rational and fixed number of persons analyses with forecast effectively in the similar study.