Empirical Research On The Relationship Between Economic Growth And Employment In Our Country

Since the reform and opening up, the economy in China has been developing rapidly while the situation of employment becomes more and more serous. Then what's the relationship between the economy and employment in China? Is it certain that the increase of the economy must bring along the employment?This paper analyzes the data from 1978 to 2003 and studies the relationship between the economy development and employment. According to the econometric theory, this paper studies the data in the way of ADF unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test, and computes the nominal employment elasticity in the way of employing regression model. It also studies the causes of the checkout and the flexibility of employment result. It concludes that the increase of the economy is not the Granger cause of nominal employment growth, that is to say, the increase of economy in China doesn't promote of the nominal employment. The decline of the nominal employment elasticity from 1999 is not only because of the improvement of technology, the imbalance of the industry structure, transformation of system and the policy of interest rate, but also because of the inexact statistic data which makes the real employment underestimated. On the basis of consideration of hidden employment, this paper analyzes the relationship between the economy increase and effective employment in China. It holds the opinion that the economy increase and effective employment are mutual the Granger cause, that's to say, the economy increasing stimulates effective employment and the effective employment promote the increase of economy. However compared to the developed country, effective employment elasticity is still very small. Additionally, this paper also reckons the employment possibility in all kinds of industry. At last, it also puts forward some proposals to solve the employment problems from the view of employment priority, industry structure , employment model and the norm of statistics.This paper includes the following five parts:1.First part is the preface which introduces the background of selecting the topic, the related materials and conclusion of current study.2.The second part makes the Granger causality test on economy increase and nominal employment and reckons the nominal employment elasticity. Then it also analyzes the reason of the nominal employment elasticity trend.3. This part makes the Granger causality test on economy increase and effective employment and has the conclusion that the two are mutual Granger cause, which is that the economy increasing stimulates effective employment and the effective employment promote the increase of economy. And it also points out that flexibility of employment is still very low, compared to the developed country.4. The forth part reckons the flexibility of employment in the three industries...