| Scientific development theory is the human-oriented, comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development theory, which is a guideline of China in 21 Century. The proposal of scientific development theory reflects that the meaning of development is more comprehensive than before. It is difficult to develop our society according to scientific development theory. In order to carry out the theory well, designing scientific development indicators system is one of the most important things at present. For the purpose, the researcher took the theory of scientific development as directed theory, took comprehensive-coordinated- sustainable development as restraints dimension, took sociology, ecology, economics, statistics and so on as the theory basis. took the existing sustainable development indicators system as the jumping-of point, took SPSS and ArcGIS as main supporting software, took theory-analytical method, frequency-statistics method, correlation-analytic method, analytic hierarchy process as main methods . At the same time, criterion of the scientific development was set down. The indicators system was used to assess the scientific development in Ningxia Hui Autonomous through time and space level. The result showed that the scientific development indicators system can be used well at both province and county wide-scale. The research is a beneficial exploration regarding to the scientific development's quantitative evaluation, which has an extremely important significance in theory and practice.The paper is divided into 4 parts. The first part is introduction (chapter 1 and chapter 2),which summarized the significance of designing "natural-economic-social" quantitative evaluation system according to scientific development theory, the progress of the study, the main research contents, research methods and technical routes.The second part (chapter 3) , is the hard core of the paper. This part showed the process of scientific development indicators system and the grading criterion were constituted.The third part (chapter 4 ~ chapter 7), is the evaluation of Ningxia Hue Autonomous by the scientific development indicators system.The fourth part (chapter 8), is a summary. The main results of this research, thequestions that needs to further studied, the thesis's innovations and so on were outlined.This thesis got the following main conclusions:(1)The scientific development indicators system was constructed, which contained 1 index of first grade, 3 indexes of second grade, 10 indexes of third grade and 30 basic indicators.(2) The index criterion was set down which led the evaluation result at the different space and time condition can be comparedThe researcher used the average level of China and country criterion of theindicators included in the scientific development system as standards, divided thedevelopment indexes as Ⅰ , Ⅱ, Ⅲ grades from high to below. I grade was divided toⅠa, Ⅰ b, Ⅰc grades;Ⅱ grade was divided to Ⅱa and Ⅱb grades;Ⅲ grade isdivided to Ⅲa , Ⅲb , Ⅲc grades.(3) The evaluation result that got by the scientific development indicators system showed that scientific development in Ningxia Hue Autonomous level is low at 1990, and the overall level enhanced with steady steps. Since 1990, scientific development level was from Ⅲb to Ⅲa level in Ningxia Hui Autonomous. The scientific development level enhanced quickly, which has grew 64.3 percent during the 14 years. According to prediction, scientific development index of Ningxia Hui Autonomous may achieve 0.40 in 2010, the scientific development level will enter II grade from the present III grade, and the scientific development enters the development phase of the medium level.(4) The comprehensive development level enhanced year by year. From 1990 to 2003, the overall development level of Ningxia Hui Autonomous has improved 37.9 percent and the rank was up from Ⅲb to Ⅱb. Among the composing factor of it, the rate of economic development improved 53 percent, the rank was up to Ⅱb from Ⅲb;The ecological environment condition improved slowly, which improved 33 percent, the society development speed was the slowest, just improved 26 percent.(5) The coordinated development level was a type of undulated development. The system coordination needs enhance in future. From 1990 to 2003, Ningxia Hui Autonomous coordinated development grade was up to Ⅲb from Ⅲc. The disparity between city and countryside was quite small, which belonged to Ⅱ grade and Ⅰc grade. Comparing with the nation, it was from medium to the slightly high level, but in the recent years it had the reducing tendency. The region balance belongs to the very lowlevel, which was IIIc grade. Though the opening to the outside world and the rate of the system coordination rises quickly, they were in the very low IIIc grade for their low base.(6) The sustainable development improved well, the rank of it was from IIIc to Ilia during the 14 years. The economical development potential was up to lib from IIIc. which was surmounted 4 ranks continuously and entered the inferior economic potential level of development. The social development potential was low, from IIIc to Illb. The environment support ability also grew quickly. Its rank entered Ib grade from Illb grade.(7)The evaluated result showed that the scientific development level of "Natural-economic-social" system in Ningxia Hui Autonomous at 2003 was divided into 3 levels in space: Yinchuan city was lib level, the scientific development level was in the center inferior;the other 13 counties on the north plain areas are Ilia grade, the level were slightly low;6 counties in Ningxia south Mountains areas were Illb level, the level were low.(8) The evaluation results in Ningxia Hui Autonomous reflected that the scientific development indicators system is a good ones, which is both valuable and maneuverable .Innovations of the thesis:(1) Established a scientific development indicators systemThis indicators system can be used well at province and county. The system expands from a sustainable development stratification plane to three stratification planes that include comprehensive, coordinated, sustainable stratification planes, thus the appraisal results can be more comprehensively, more scientific. And the analysis is clearer, the redundancy is smaller.(2) Established index' mathematical models on scientific developmentThe study established scientific development at the level of the index models of different rank, which can calculate three arrangement index of the system. The system can assess a district at different point of view and different rank. The evaluation result is more accurate.(3) Found a new method of standardizationThe standard method enables the appraisal results of different time, the different criterion, the different region to have the commensurability.(4) Formulated the rank criterion of index in scientific development indicatorssystemThe existed synthetic rank used to some region appraisal often was set down temporarily, which lead in the assessment results lacked commensurability in different district. This article used the criterion of all levels of index for scientific development to carry on the data conversion. Thus the commensurability of the appraisal results was enhanced.(5)Developing the appraisal dimensionThe paper evaluated the scientific development of "natural-economic-sociaP" system in Ningxia Hui Autonomous from space and time dimensionality, which caused the assessment more accurate than one dimensionality. |
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