Time Series Research And Application On China’s Ecological Footprint From1978to2011

Sustainable development is an enormous system, and the improvement of accuracy insustainable development measurement, transparency of reasons, and reliability ofimplementation will be of great significance. In this paper, problems occurred in theapplication of traditional ecological footprint theory are concluded and modified, andmeanwhile, the sustainable development status of China from1978to2011is analyzed withthe modified ecological footprint theory.At first, aiming at the deficiencies in the traditional ecological footprint theory,modifications and improvements are conducted in this paper, including three broad categoriesand five types:(1) Measurement of actual equilibrium factor and output factor;(2) Introduction of the energy bearing capacity and fresh water footprint account;(3) Analysis and prediction according to the time series;According to the results, ever since the reform and opening-up, the ecological crisis isintensified gradually, with the ecological footprint per capita increasing from the4.8449hm2in2011to the1.3764hm2in1978, while the ecological carrying capacity does not increasedrastically, which may result in the increasing ecological deficit. In the future five years, theecological footprint will increase continuously.Secondly, the econometrics theoretical analysis is applied for analyzing the relationbetween the energy footprint and economic development:(1) According to the co-integration analysis, ever since the reform and opening-up, theenergy footprint and economic development keep a long-term stable and balanced state;(2) According to the error analysis results, although the energy footprint and economicdevelopment have been stable for a long time, there are still short-term fluctuations. When thetrend of the two deviates from each other temporarily, the reverse error correction mechanismwill get the small-scale fluctuation to the normal state, with0.306adjustment intensity;(3) According to the Granger causality, the energy is the cause, while the economy is theresult, and the relation between the two is no unilateral. The economic development results inthe gradually increase of energy footprint, while the increase of energy footprint may not havea positive function on the economic development, and instead, it even aggravates the ecological deficit.Finally, the ecological footprint theory is applied for conducting the evaluation and analysisfor the energy conservation and emission reduction:(1) The situational prediction reflects that the energy conservation and emission reductionalleviates the increase of ecological footprint, but the effect may not be evident within a shortterm, suggesting that the energy consumption and emission reduction shall be kept constantlyfor a long term;(2) The analysis of disconnection between energy consumption and economic developmentreflects that economic development and energy utilization will gradually get rid of the mutualdependency between them with the social development and constant strengthening of energyconservation and emission reduction.