Dynamic Analysis And Time Series Prediction Of Water Resources Ecological Footprint Of Liaoning Province

The Ecological Footprint theory provides a new idea for the quantitative evaluation ofthe sustainable use of water resources. On the basis of the ecological footprint theoreticalmodel, the seventh account, water resources account was joined in the current research. Wehave determined three basic parameters in the water resources ecological footprint model(global average production of the modulus, equilibrium factor of water resources and yieldfactor of water resources), established the water resources ecological footprint model,calculated water resources ecological footprint and analyzed its dynamic changing inLiaoning Province during2002-2010. The content of our study includes the dynamic analysisof the water resources ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and water resourcesecological deficit/surplus of Liaoning Province over the latest9years; the dynamiccomparison and analysis the water resources ecological footprint, water resources ecologicaldeficit/surplus of the inner cities of Liaoning Province during the years of2007-2008; thecomparison analysis of water resources ecological footprint, ecological deficit/surplus ofLiaoning Province with other similar coastal provinces in the year of2009; the calculation ofthe index of water resources ecological footprint per Ten thousands yuan GDP and waterresource ecological pressure index, and analysis its dynamic changing in the period of2002-2010.In addition, the Time Series Analysis has also been studied. In the period of2002-2010,the water resources ecological footprints per capita of Liaoning Province were set as theoriginal sequence x, and the analysis is through the ARIMA model. The course of the studyinclude the stationary testing and central processing to the time series of x; the identificationand establishment of the model; the screening of the goodness of fitness, the selection of theARIMA (4,1,2) model as the best model, the prediction of the dynamic changing trends ofthe water resources ecological footprint of Liaoning Province in the next five years, theprovision of the sustainable development strategy of water resources countermeasures.the results of above studies show that, during the years of2002-2009, the ecological footprintsof water resources per capita of Liaoning Province were in the mild deficit level and risingyear by year, but corresponding water resources ecological carrying capacity show a steadyand progressive decline; while in2010, the water resources carrying capacity increasesstraight up, and the sustainable use of water resources has been achieved. During the years of2008and2009, the inner cities of Liaoning Province such as Dandong and Benxi, water resources ecological footprints were at an Eco-surplus state, the cities of Liaoyang and Panjinwere at a moderate deficit state, other cities are at a mild deficit status. In the period of2002-2010, water resources ecological footprint per Ten thousand yuan GDP of LiaoningProvince showed overall downward trend, the using efficiencies of water resources ofLiaoning Province increased year by year. During2002-2009, the ecological pressure indexesof water resources of Liaoning Province were all greater than1, indicated an unsustainabledevelopment, but in2010, the water resources ecological pressure index was less than1,indicated an achievement of the sustainable utilization of water resources, the selection of theARIMA (4,1,2) model as the best model, the prediction of the dynamic changing trends ofwater resources ecological footprint per capita of Liaoning Province in the next five yearsshowing a rising trends.By dynamic analysis of the water resources ecological footprint of Liaoning ProvinceVertically and horizontally, we have studied and assessed the future sustainable utilization ofwater resources of Liaoning Province objectively and Comprehensively, and provided anumber of certain references to achieving sustainable development for water resourcesplanning.