Vulnerability Assessment Of Man And Nature Coupled System In Turpan City

In this study， taking an arid land oasis city in areas-Turpan City as the research object， datasurvey and the literature collection were carried out to get the statistical data of the economicsystems，the social systems，the natural systems of Turpan city. Using the acquired data，qualitativeand quantitative evaluation and analysis on vulnerability of man and nature coupled system ofTurpan city were carried out by applying analytical methods such as vulnerability analysis，sensitivity analysis，response capacity analysis，entropy methods，AHP，triangle graphic method etc.to propose some useful measures for fulfill the sustainable development of Turpan city. Study resultsas follow:(1) That economy is small，regional economic disparities is relatively sharp，the social securitysystem is not perfect，the quality of life of urban residents is relatively low，and education isrelatively backward， severe water shortages， extreme drought， lack of vegetation cover，lowecological functions etc. is the common problem of human-nature coupled system of Turpan city atthe present begening stage of urbanization.(2) The vulnerability of the economic system is the major aspects of vulnerability ofhuman-nature coupled system of Turpan city. From1990to2011，vulnerability of economic systemis volatility decline，trend of which similar to trends of man-nature coupled system， while theresiliency of the economic system has been continuously increasing over the years. During theperiod of1990~1998vulnerability of economic system is relatively dominate over the others，whileresiliency of the which is in dominate position for2005～2011.(3)The changes of vulnerability of social system are the least compared to others during theobservation period. From1990to2011， the vulnerability of social systems is volatility declined.From1990to2000， the sensitivity of the social system is basically in the dominant position; whilerecoverability of the system is in dominate position as the economy improved from2000to2011.Fluctuations in natural systems are the most significant during the observation period. During theobservation period， the sensibility， recoverability， overall vulnerability of the ecological systems (natural systems) is volatility increasing over the year. It suggests that human pressures on theenvironment of the city of Turpan are continuously increasing.(4) The vulnerability of man-nature coupled system of Turpan city is decreasing over the yearsfrom1990to2011. Based on the degree of vulnerability can be divided into the following threephases: the first from1990to1998， although the system vulnerability rapid decline year by year，the vulnerability of the system are relatively strong. At this time system is characterized withcoexistence of high sensitivity and low resilience. The second， from1998to2009， thevulnerability of system has declined， but it is still a strong vulnerability phase. Third, from2009to2011， the vulnerability of the system further decline， in this period significantly improved systemresilience has greater impact on declining of the system vulnerability which is relatively weak. Theresults from the triangle method shows that from1990to201122years， the vulnerability of theman-nature coupled systems of Turpan city are ERS-type. It suggests that the certain proportion ofproblem exist among three subsystem of the whole system，and its limiting effect to sustainabledevelopment of Turpan has relatively equal.(5) In order to achieve sustainable development in Turpan, the following points should beconsidered in future work. On the economic system， firstly， the economic system extraversion，external economic ties should be strengthen; secondly， improve the quality of industrialization，thedevelopment of new industries; then， adjust the industrial structure， support the tertiary industry;the last， develop the modern agriculture， increase the unit production. On the social system， thefirst， sound the social security system; secondly， create new jobs and expand employmentopportunities and improve the employment rate; finally， we should vigorously develop educationand improve the educational level of the population. In the natural system， first of all， rationalexploit and use of resources should be encouraged， improve efficiency， protect the sustainable useof resources; secondly， strengthen environmental supervision， improve environmental protectionscience and technology， and finally， the popularize the Environmental Protection Act， increasethe environmental awareness.