Study Of Safety Early Warning Index Calculation Model Research And Application Of Machinery Manufacturing Of Huainan

Traditional security management is equal to accident management, namely "problems type management", only dealing with the accident itself. This type of management focuses on the analysis of the cause of the accident, drawing lessons from the past. Lacking quantitative approaches and systematicness,earlier safety management analyzes accidents mainly based on experience,and the safety condition is often determined with qualitative analysis. As the basic industry of our country, mechanical manufacturing has a large number of enterprises,which causes frequent accidents. Aimed at the shortcomings of earlier safety management, the thesis established the calculation model of safety production early warning index in mechanical manufacturing.This paper first introduces the theoretical part of calculation model of safety early warning index. Then according to the characteristic of mechanical manufacturing and based on the principles of index selection,28early warning indicators within4subsystems of human factors,equipment factors, management factors and environmental factors were selected. With combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis method, using entropy method and analytic hierarchy process,the early warning index weights were determined and the safety production early warning index was obtained. According to the division method of early warning line and by reference to climate index analysis method, the paper divided the safety early warning index into four ranges of safety, alertness, warning and danger. Secondly, by using the theory of grey prediction, the safety production early warning index in future several months was forecasted.This paper selected a machinery company in Huainan as the research object, and according to the division method of early warning line, it is showed that the range of known security area is (0,140]; range of alertness area is (140,204.4]; range of warning area is(204.4,238];range of danger area is(238,280].Based on the method above, the company’s production safety early warning index value in nearly one year is obtained, which is between10to25.At last,some improvement steps and advice on the shortcomings of the company’s safety management are put forward.