The Design And Realization Of Surface Subsidence Prediction Program

Coal is one of China’s primary energy, also is the material basis for the rapid development of national economy and social indispensable. Although the amount of domestic coal mined has been to be controlled this two year, but coal still dominate our energy resources, the amount of domestic coal mined is still large, the resulting problems related are still outstanding. Surface subsidence is one problem, it brings harm to buildings, roads, farmland and so in the industrial square and mine can not be ignored, so a surface subsidence prediction has important practical significance to ensure safety in coal mines production and sustainable development of the mining area.This paper first analyzes the feasibility of the design and realization of surface subsidence prediction program, then uses the Visual Basic6.0software as development platform, writes computer programs to achieve that inputting of n period of the measured data in text form and manual directly, establishes the GM (1,1) equal-dimension and new-information models based on gray system theory, selects the best model dimension based on residual filter value and residuals mean square error of each dimension(4-n) of the models’fitting results, predicts the sedimentation value for n+1period of surface subsidence points, shows the comparisons of measured values and predicted values in chart form intuitively, and assesses the accuracy of prediction model according to residual size test method.Finally, this paper selects the surface subsidence data of the Wolonghu coal mine and the industry square subsidence data of the Qianyingzi coal mine to test and analysis the program, the predicted results of this two examples are very satisfactory, the accuracy of prediction model respectively reaches level two and level one, this achieves the desired purpose.