Study On Prediction Of Landslide Probability Of Bench Slope

At present，domestic and foreign scientists are forecasting landslide for the overallhigh slope mostly, but less for open pit slope steps and the side stairs slope such as thehighway and railway embankment slope whose height is ten meters or more. When suchlandslide of slope hanppens, it is primarily the wedge landslide which controlled by the jointsurface, though small, but a phenomenon often happens, it is more frequent than the overallsliding slope to affect production.Landslide prediction in this paper is based on research of level scale slope wedge,through sampling test work of joint and geological information of region whose is about tostep slope in the main mine of Baiyunebo. On this basis, probability and statistics,theoretical analysis and computer programming can be used. The main contents of thisarticle are:(1) statistical analysis on on-site measurement jointed surface data, getting theprobability distribution and eigenvalues.(2) the use of Monte Carlo simulation principle,producing probability distributions of obedience within [0,1] uniform random number ineach group, simulating the slope in the rectangular box with the measured statisticallyroughly the same as rock structure model and preparing corresponding simulation program.(3)matching the stepped slope size on the equivalent jointed rock model, forming the jointplane network simulation diagram with a stepped shape. According to the cross and thecombination of the slope face each jointed surface exposed lines, using space analyticgeometry, block theory and stereographic projection method to identify the possiblecombinations of the surface slope wedge formation.(4)selecting each one which may becombined into a wedge on the steps of the slope in turn, sampling intensity data generated itsjoint plane, calculating the volume and the wedge landslide probability. Finding all thewedges and performing as such calculations so that we can predict the probability of theoccurrence of landslides in various parts of the slope of the stairs. This paper is researching for the forecast of landslide probablity distribution on theupcoming formed step slope. It can be helped for engineers to take timely targetedprevention measures in the design, to avoid landslide hazards and to reduce economic lossescaused by design modification when landslide happens.