Research Of Mining Subsidence Prediction Based On GIS And Probability Integration Method

Coal resources in our country has always been a dominant energy,and the “ThreeUnder”mining increasingly widespread.However,subsidence and other geological disasterscaused by mining has been continuously,affecting the people’s production and lifeseriously.with the rapid developement of economy,the demand for coal resources is alsoincreasing.So,how to predict and the early warning the occurrence and development ofsubsidence and other geological disasters is a technical problems need to solve. With thedevelopment of surveying and mapping,computer and GIS,provide the technical support forthe complex problem such as the mining subsidence prediction and early warning whichmuti-diciplinary integration.Mining subsidence prediction is the primary problem of the research on miningsubsidence.the accuracy of prediction related to the reasonableness of mining programs andmanagement decisions. Currently,most of mines in our country estimate the miningsubsidence using probability integration method,which achieved more substantial results inthe large coalfield with simple geological conditions in northern.In southern,there are multiplesmall coalfield with complex geological conditions,big sean dip and the coal burieddeeper.Therefore,we need to adopt appropriate prediction theoretical methods and predictionparameters to predict the impact on surface caused by mining on working surface,so as tohave a reasonable explanation for surface deformation and rock movement.combined with theArcEngine component technologies,SQL Server database technology realized the C/Sstructure overall design of the measuring point monitoring and early warning systems.In this paper,based on the theory of probability integration method,use the drillinggeological data to obtaining the mining subsidence predict parameters.quickly predicted basedon the visual programming language,with the powerful spatial analysis founction of GIS tovisualize the prediction results,taking a systematic conduct the information processing to themining subsidence.Take the two mining area for example,which in Zixing Tangdong,predictedthe surface deformation caused by mining,evaluate the accuracy of probility integrationmethod prediction combined with the measured data,Instantiate verified the surfacedeformation and the rock movement mechanism.Based on the topographic maps and themeasured data,used the friendly human interface realized the integration of spatial data andattribute data.By setting the alarm threshold of different building(structure),realized thevisural expression of mine subsidence disaster warning and rating.From the analysis ofprediction results and the actual subsidence,probility integration method prediction to thesubsidence can promote the application in the small coal of south and the lack of measureddata,serving for the scientific management decision-making.