Design Of Subsidence Prediction GIS System Based On Probability Integral Method

The surface subsidence caused by coal mining and its impact on the ecological environment has been concerned by people,In this thesis,the mining subsidence prediction system is developed in order to minimize the loss caused by mining subsidence.This system can accurately predict the surface movement and deformation caused by mining.This thesis studies from the following two aspects:The first aspect is the subsidence prediction method.Through summarizing the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the method of mining subsidence prediction,establishing three models based on the theory of probability integral method.The first model can be used to predict the subsidence of working face with any shape and any coal seam inclination.The second model can be used to predict the subsidence of working face with any number based on the way of coordinate rotation.The third model can be used to predict dynamic subsidence of rectangular working face through improving Knothe function.Using single variable method to analyze the parameters of each model.The influence of the change of the parameters on the predicted results is observed by the curve of the surface movement and deformation.Comparing the result with objective law in order to determine the accuracy of the algorithm.The second aspect is the design of subsidence prediction system.Basing on the Microsoft.NET framework,in the Visual Studio2010 environment using C#language to complete the establishment of the model and data processing and output data of surface movement and deformation in tabular form.Through the secondary development of ArcGIS to improve the data display function and combine mine map and surface movement data.The movement and deformation of subsidence basin are shown through the contour line.Giving the geographic information to the surface in order to improve the processing efficiency of geographic information data.Using elevation grid in ArcScene to establish digital elevation model and realize 3D visualization of subsidence data.Calculating the area and volume of subsidence area.The system is applied to engineering examples at last.Comparing the results with the mature prediction system to verifying the accuracy of the system.So as to analyze the influence of mining subsidence and provide reliable and intuitive data support for the prevention and protection of mining subsidence.