The Forecast Of Carbon Emission Of Urban Transportation And Choice Of Development Mode Take Tianjin As An Example

As the phenomenon of global warming become more and more serious, governments allover the world realize the importance of development of low carbon. However, urbantransportation as the main way for carbon emission, the construction of low carbontransportation has become the focus for the government all over the world.Along with rapid development of economic and society, the number of urban population isgrowing, the size of urban scale is increasing, the contact of different region has become moreclosely, the demand for urban transportation has increased rapidly. Consequently, problemssuch as urban traffic congestion, traffic pollution and so on often happen. The city cannotdevelop without the support of urban transportation, if the transportation cannot meet thedemand for development of economic, the city will be restricted at the same time. Therefore,facing the serious condition government of Tianjin should construct a new transportationsystem to adapt the demand for rapid development of economic. Based on the above issues,this paper does the jobs as the following:First, this thesis has described the backdrop of low carbon transportation, the intension oflow carbon transportation, the characteristic of low carbon transportation and main way forconstructing the low carbon transportation all over the world, based on the experiment ofcountries all over the world, provided an important reference about development of lowcarbon transportation.Second, this thesis has made a research on the actual traffic condition in Tianjin, mainlyincluding the condition of carbon emission of transportation, urban population, publictransportation, private cars, system of urban road and transportation management, providingthe data support for decision for low carbon transportation.Third, this thesis through analysis and comparison of several kinds of prediction methods,finds that the method of grey forecasting is suitable for carbon emissions of Tianjin trafficprediction. So, construct the grey forecasting model for traffic emissions in the next few yearsin Tianjin. Then, use the principal component analysis to analysis the influence factors of lowcarbon development, proposed the thought of low carbon development of transportation, thefuture developments of transportation modes in Tianjin are given.Forth, based on the actual condition in Tianjin, this paper gives suggestions on thedevelopment of low carbon such as control the demand of transportation, optimize the urbantraffic structure, improve the urban traffic management level and adjust the energy structureof urban transportation.