Analysis And Decomposition On The Stock Of Carbon Dioxide In The Atmosphere In China

According to Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change of IPCC, in the past100years, global temperature went up by0.3℃-0.6℃, which caused by the excessive carbon dioxide emissions of human activities, the fact that climate change causes to natural disasters within the world and threats directly to human survival and development. For China,1986-2006, there were21consecutive warm winters, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and disasters increased, economic and social development is threatened. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) mentioned in the "World Energy Outlook2006" report:the proportion of carbon dioxide emissions in China in2005accounted for19%in the world, to2015, this proportion will reach23.9%is expected, more than18.1%in the U.S., becoming the world’s largest emitter. Thus, it is urgent to reduce the stock of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions in China.In recent years, with the proposed of low-carbon economy, the forest carbon sinks is concerned by people. It plays a significant role to reduce the stock of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions for forest carbon sinks. For full account of this, the paper establishes the model of stock estimation to estimate the stock of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions in China, and analyses the changes about the stock of carbon dioxide emissions from carbon dioxide emissions of energy consumption and forest carbon sinks. Then, basing on the results of above analysis, using the extensive model of KAYA identity and LMDI, the paper analysis emphatically the factors of carbon dioxide emissions in sectors based on two indicators, total carbon dioxide emissions and carbon dioxide emissions per GDP. The results showed that:the stock of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere growths continuously in the timing of studying, energy consumption carbon dioxide emissions play a decisive role, however, it growths slower in subsequent phases of studying, forest carbon sinks have played a significant role. In addition to the primary industry in individual years, total carbon dioxide emissions of energy consumption were up, it is mainly because of the promote of economic development, the role of energy consumption intensity and carbon dioxide emissions intensity is different for industries, industry structure effect is not obvious. At the same time, carbon dioxide emissions per GDP increases in the construction industry, it is mainly the result of carbon dioxide emissions intensity. carbon dioxide emissions per GDP increases in transportation and storage industry, it is mainly the result of energy consumption intensity, then, the number of carbon dioxide emissions per GDP in the other industry is decrease, it is the result of the influence including energy intensity effect, carbon dioxide emissions intensity and industry structure, the influence is vary with different industries.