| This paper, based on the theory of industrial organization, with literature analysis and empirical study, comparative analysis and summary methods of induction, study the China travel agency industry concentration and market performance and the correlation between them. Paper is divided into five chapters, the first chapter introduces the purpose of this study meaning, ideas, frameworks and methods and the research summary of the correlation between industrial concentration and market performance; The second chapter introduces the relevant theory, including industrial organization theory, theory of industrial concentration, market performance theory and the definition of travel agents; Chapter III reviews the development of China travel agency, using data collected on China travel agency, analyses industry concentration and market performance, and compares the related indicators with the developed tourism countries; Chapter IV analyses the correlation of between China travel agency industry concentration and market performance; ChapterⅤputs forward suggestions and solutions.Through research, the main conclusions of the paper:First, review and analysis showed that the overall development of China travel agency good. Since the reform and opening up, China's travel industry, the market step by step process, in particular the 20th century 90's, the market accelerated, travel industry continues to expand the industrial scale, the number of travel agents annual growth rate of more than 12%; tourism business booming, the three major tourism sustained and stable growth; significantly increase economic efficiency, operating income of 4.494 billion yuan from 1991 to 2008, 166.288 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 37 times; however, the rapid development of China's travel industry in the process, there have been a number of issues, outstanding performance as the diseconomies of scale, low industrial concentration, the immediate effect is not a reasonable allocation of resources, lack of effective competition, profit margins declining.Second, the data analysis results show that China's travel industry, the level of industrial concentration and market performance was significantly decreased. (1) Using indicators of industry concentration ratios, travel industry in China CR3 were calculated, and the CR3 target by 34.45% in 1991 fell to 20.30% in 1995, except 1997, the Chinese travel industry CR3 index since 1996 to 2008 averaged less than 10%, industry concentration decreased. Bain reference to market structure classification, the market structure of China's travel industry is fully competitive market structure. (2) and the developed countries travel abroad compared to China's travel industry, significantly lower levels of industrial concentration, United States, Italy, Tokushima and other countries travel agents CR3 index above 40%, some even above 60%.(3) The profit margin on the market performance of China's travel industry to calculate the profit margin obtained from 1991 to 1995 about 10%, from 1996 to 2002 is about 1%, less than 1% after 2002. This is not only far lower than the travel of 6% -7% in developed countries levels of profitability since 2002 is also lower than the international travel industry, the average profit margin of 1%.Third, the model showed that China's travel industry concentration and market performance exists between the strong correlation.(1) The use of software Eviews5.0 index of industry concentration and market performance associated margin test, obtained a correlation coefficient of 0.91 between the two proved a strong correlation between them. (2) Made by both stationary and cointegration test, proved that is the long-term stability between them. Granger test verify the industrial concentration CR3 is the market profitability Granger reason and the travel industry in China decline in industrial concentration level is declining profit margins of the important factors. (3) Finally, industry concentration as the independent variable, market performance as the dependent variable for regression analysis of the relationship between the two obtained industrial concentration and market performance has a significant linear correlation between them.Fourth, the analysis results in the travel trade industry concentration on market performance has a significant influence, should increase the travel industry, our level of industrial concentration. China should improve the overall travel industry market order, improve the industrial policy, and construct a new specialized division of labor system, and micro establishment of large travel agencies should be actively group, universal enterprise information and improve their core competitiveness. |
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