Research On The Fluctuation And Forecast Of World Dry Bulk Carrier Orders

With the development of shipbuilding industry, dry bulk carrier with heavy tonnage, easy technology, good economic benefit and other advantages has become one of the world's three main ships. In recent years, various shipbuilding countries are competing to increase their investment in dry bulk carrier, which makes it become one of the most developing focuses. Therefore, national ship operators are paying close attention to the development of the world's dry bulk carrier. Dry bulk carrier contracts are an important indicator of measuring the market trend of dry bulk carrier, which best reflects the level of shipbuilding market activity, and order books can indirectly reflect the operational state of shipbuilding enterprises, it is also the key to measure weather the steady growth in production being maintained or not in large shipbuilding enterprises in coming years. Thus, if you want to understand the world developmental situation of the dry bulk carrier, we must master the fluctuation situation of contracts and order books.This paper aims at exploring the fluctuation characteristics of the dry bulk carrier orders which based on the large time span, and finding the main factors which affect fluctuations, finally forecasting fluctuation trend of orders in the next three years. With regards to this, firstly this paper briefly describes the dry bulk carrier and the constitution of orders, and presents six order fluctuation parameters which describe the fluctuation characteristics, and briefly expounds forming general mechanism of the fluctuation. Secondly, according to the fluctuation curve of all ship's orders, we utilize fluctuation parameters to describe the fluctuation characteristics of order in detail, and on this basis it deeply analyzes the use reason of point or segment of the abnormal fluctuations. Finally, we make the use of time series analysis to establish prediction model. In view of the particularity of orders, we add an irregular factor in the model, which avoid forecast bias due to unforeseen unusual factors, and improve the prediction accuracy. In addition, according to the future trends of the orders, this paper puts forward a few comments and suggestions for the development of China's dry bulk carrier. Thus, it provides a theoretical guide for management decision of China's shipbuilding enterprises, while it also has a certain reference to the development of relevant industries.