| Since October, 2003, the performance of the international dry bulk shipping marker of has been very powerful. Due to China importing iron ore and Japan importing coal, the marine transport demand is unprecedented rise, also becasue the shipping trade of grain and minor bulks is very active. Because of the port congestion that is rare seen in the history and the low increasing rate of delivering new ships, the shipping supply highly nervous.In all kinds of dry and bulk carriers, the bulk carrier of Panama is the most representative. Its DWT is between 6 to 10 tons, and it that is the best carrier through Panama Canal to Pacific from Atlantic is used widely in the transportation of coal, ore, Grain, Fertilizer and the transportation of container and oil. It as the main door and classics type in the transportation of international major dry bulk cargo appeared the situation of the supply falls shout of demand since 2003, and the market of it begins to rise. Experiencing several fluctuates, BPI index reflecting the trend of market arrived the highest point of 11713 in the history in 30th, 10, 2007. But how to certain the development distraction is the most focused question by the engaged in Panama carrier company. This article is to research the trend of Panama carrier market in the future years to analyze the demand of the cargo carried by Panama carrier aiming at Panama carrier market.This article analyzes the main place of production, consumptiveness and the situation of supply and demand of main cargoes carried by Panama carrier based on its technical characteristics. It uses combined forecasting method to quantitative forecast the shipping volume of the two cargoes based on the history data, and analyzes the structure of Cape of Hope carrier, looking back the traits of its development, forecasting the future supplying volume and certaining the supply situation in the future years. It uses ARIMA model to analyze the trend of the BPI index in the future based on analyze it's fluctuate rule. |
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