The Upgrade Of The Export Structure And The Adjustment Of Industrial Structure In China

Upgrade of the industrial structure is an important indicator of national economic development. For China, the long-established export-oriented development strategy, and export more labor-intensive products with low added value, make industrial structural imbalance in China's economic development which has become deep-seated and instable reasons.First step of this article, we use traditional shift-share method to analyze the effect of factor's mobility from the change of the thrice industrial structure and the industrial structure, and later we introduce the shift-share method based on the total factor productivity, then we improve the shift-share method, and put forward the Dynamic Shift-share method. With the dynamic shift-share method, we can dividend the bonus structure hypothesis from thrice industry and industry. For the second step, we use the theoretical analysis, empirical testing and case analysis to analyze the guiding of export structure to industrial structure, and then analyze the dynamic feedback mechanisms between them.Through theoretical analysis, combined with China's empirical data of 1993-2008, we get the following conclusions:(1) In thrice industry, during the change of the industrial structure, the factors mobility appears the bonus structure. This appearance has a certain stage, from 1993-1998 and 2003-2008, the bonus structure appeared, but in 1999-2002, there is a negative effect of the change of structure.(2) A certain degree of negative effect appeared in the change of industry structure. changed the internal structure of Chinese industry during the flow of certain elements of the structure of the phenomenon of negative interest, before 1995,1998-2002,2003, these periods appears negative effect in the change of industry structure, and much more significant than the normal year. This appearance is concerned with national policy guidance, factor endowments play and the economic environment.(3) To analyze the change of industrial structure from the view of the trading mode, trading partners, enterprise ownership, we find that through these three perspectives can guide the structural changes with factor mobility. The theoretical analysis with Sub-industry data confirmed the above conclusions, and we confirmed that the effect of Labor-intensive industries'guiding of trading structure to industry structure is more significant than Capital-intensive industries. And we also get the conclusion that three industries added value and export volume has significant role in promoting the thrice industry structure.(4) Finally, the paper discusses the interactive feedback mechanism of the export trade structure and industrial structure, and obtained the export trade can guide the process of changing industrial structure, but restrict with the level of industry's development.