The Research Of The Investment Risk Of The ZH Electric Power Project Based On The Monte Carlo Simulation

As the electric power system reform, the electric power industry to reduce dependence on government in the investment subject pluralism, electric power project, appear to have long, long period running construction and the investment capital is recovered in long, investment is huge, and the influence of social characteristics, once produce risk, the economic loss caused by the very often. Therefore, the research on power project risk systematic analysis, avoid blind investment, reduce the investment losses and improve the benefit of investment is very necessary. Project feasibility study of electric power project life cycle as a very important stage in the project investment decision is to construction projects and comprehensive technical and economic analysis, and after the completion of the project of the economic benefits of the prediction and evaluation of science, is the main basis of project investment. In this paper the current condition of electric power project investment, introduces the basic content of project risk management and analysis, and power generation market environment characteristics of project risk, the qualitative analysis of investment projects, the relationship between uncertainty and risk as the key, using quantitative project management theory and system simulation technology advanced theory and technology, project cash flow as the premise, the simulation analysis of electric power project, elaborated the profitability of monte carlo simulation process, and ZH power project is analyzed, and the investment risk of ZH electric power project research, hope in the electric power industry development and reform on the stage for the power of today, electric power project investment and management provide valuable method.