Commodity Housing Market Price Bubble Measurement And Price Determinants

The rapid development of the real estate market, rising house prices and the U.S. real estate market bubble burst subprime mortgage crisis caused a huge impact on the global economy, the real estate bubble has become the focus of attention, especially in the context of the real estate market regulation, real estatemarket bubble exists, its severity, the foam when rupture is anyone’s guess, academia divergence. This paper plans to take advantage of the economic bubble theory, combined with the real estate market characteristics, analysis of the causes and mechanisms of the real estate price bubble, and analysis of the core of the real estate prices affect factors in an attempt to analyze whether the price of real estate in a particular market bubble, and the measure of its foam level. So that people have a clear understanding of the real estate market and real estate bubble in order to promote the healthy and rapid development of the real estate market.The generalized JLS model based on its improvement and parameter correction, in order to improve its applicability in the detection found that the the generalized JLS model after the correction is not only good results in the detection and prediction of China’s stock market bubble, the same may be in real estateprice bubble has a good application for the accurate detection of the real estate market bubble and the effect of the real estate bubble burst has a significant warning for the real estate market has a practical significance. Meanwhile, in the detection of the Shanghai housing prices, we also noted that despite the2009housing prices rose faster, but not the market price bubble burst signal is detected, its causes and mechanism needs further study and analysis.Panel data from2007to2010in10cities nationwide real estate market analysis, and then measure the ratio of the size of the price bubble in the regional real estate market in China, found that the ratio level is not the level of real estate prices in a region with its foamthere are necessarily linked. The high level of real estate prices does not mean that a higher level of real estate price bubble, but part determined by the basic economic factors account for a high proportion; Nationally, the performance of the housing bubble transmitted between the major cities of the country apparent. Other areas of infectious and the eastern part of the city housing bubble is significantly higher. Real estate price bubble in the formulation of policies, to prevent infection, from the first-tier cities to second-tier cities, the Eastern District of infection to other parts of the country. In the first-tier cities, real estate control policies to adopt more stringent control.