The Empirical Analysis On Commercial Housing Market Speculative Bubble In Shanxi Province

Government in our country canceled welfare housing system, and began to make the reform on personal housing marketed. Therefore, real estate industry in our country has come into a fast development period, and Shanxi's real estate industy has been made great progress. Along with the rapid development of real estate industry in Shanxi Province, The prices of commodity house market are rising. In 2006, average sales price of commodity house in Shanxi Province was 1988 yuan/square metre. In 2007, average sales price of commodity house in Shanxi Province was 2250. Compared with the price in 2006, the price in 2007 increased 13.2%. In 2008, average sales price of commodity house in Shanxi Province was 2355 yuan/square metre. Compared with the price in 2007, the price in 2008 increased 4.7%. Compared with the price in 1999, the price in 2008 increased 1.3 times.Because average sales price of commodity house continues to rise recently, whether commodity house market exist bubble or not has been taken a lot of scholars'attention. In this paper, selecting the data in Shanxi Province from 1998 to 2008 on urban residents'per capita disposable income, on average sales price of commodity house, on commercial bank loan interest rate, I have established the model which is able to speculate whether Shanxi commodity house market exist bubbles or not, in order to analysis commodity house market in Shanxi Province from 1998 to 2008.The result of the study indicates that: commodity house market in Shanxi Province from 1998 to 2008 has not appeared yet bubbles. However, in the analysis on the situation of commodity house speculative market in Shanxi Province from 1998 to 2008, I have found some problems that some rates are high such as housing price-income rate, synchronous rate between house price and CPI, synchronous rate between commodity housing sales and social total retail sales of consumer goods, commercial vacancy rate. To deal with these problems, I have put forwards some countermeasures from the angle of supply and demand.