| The low-carbon economy first was found in energy White Paper "Our energy future: creating a low carbon economy "published by British government in 2003, which was proposed to respond climate change and achieve sustainable development. Once made, it reached community consensus.This paper mainly involves in three aspects. The first is based on economic development and three inverted U-curve of carbon emissions to determine the overall phase of carbon emissions in Henan Province, in which concludes indicators of carbon emissions intensity, per capita carbon emissions and carbon emissions; the second, by use of the relative indicator carbon productivity, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Theil index to measure temporal and spatial differences of the level of low-carbon development in Henan Province, then compared it with the level of economic development, industrialization level and civilization level to summarize temporal and spatial differences of the level of low-carbon develop in Henan Province . At last, using low carbon development characteristics in each city to partition types; the third, the driving force of carbon emissions growth is analyzed by adopting LMDI. By decomposing Kaya formula, the drivers of carbon emissions growth are decomposed into energy mix, the production sector energy intensity, economic structure, the per capita GDP, total population, energy consumption per unit length of transportation routes, the average transport routes of transport, transport volume, the energy intensity of living, average household income and the number of families. The changes of driving force in each year during 2005-2009 are obtained by calculating. The eleven drivers can be classified into three categories: energy intensity effect, structural effect and scale effect. The functions of all the effects in carbon emissions are analyzed to obtain the major positive factors and negative factors of carbon emissions growth in Henan Province.Through above analysis, this paper reaches the following conclusions:First, the level of low carbon development is overall low in Henan Province and it is currently in the second development phase, namely the carbon emissions intensity declined while per capita carbon emissions and carbon emissions rose, that is Henan Province is in high carbon emissions stage currently.Second, the level of low carbon development in Henan Province has significant spatial regularity, emerging a high level in east and south while a low level in west and north basic pattern, which is contrast to the spatial pattern that the level of economic development, industrialization level and urbanization level is high in north but low in south, high in west low in east in Henan Province. According to the relationship of the level of low carbon development with the level of economic development, industrialization level and urbanization level, three typical economic zones can be found in Henan Province, that is low-carbon economic zones, high- carbon economic zones and pseudo-low-carbon economic zones.Third, the measure towards differences of the level of low carbon development by use of standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Theil index shows that the expansion of absolute difference and the narrow of relative difference in Henan Province. This illustrates that the level of low carbon development in each region has been in a process of convergence, namely the growth speed in low level of low carbon development areas are faster than those in high level of low carbon development areas.Fourth, the overall look of Henan Province, positive drivers of per capita GDP, the total population, economic structure and average household income promote carbon emissions growth during 2005-2009 , the average contribution rate were: 6.5%,6.1%,1.5% and 0.9%; negative drivers are energy mix, the production sector Energy intensity and the energy intensity of living, the average contribution rate were: -5.7%,-1.6%,-0.8%. But among the positive factors, scale factor and factor of economic structure are crucial. This reflects that, on one hand, population growth especially urban population growth and growth of economic size cause the growth of carbon emissions, on the other hand, heavy economic structure also contributes to it. The major negative drivers were energy intensity and energy mix, indicating that the rise of energy efficiency and the improvement of energy mix take a negative role in the growth of carbon emissions. However, the contribution rate of positive elements is higher than that of negative elements, resulting in sustained and rapid growth of carbon emissions in Henan Province. |
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