Research On The Method Of Fast Forecasting For Water Conservancy Construction Project Cost Based On Historical Data

The integration of the world economy, industry of internationalization of the development trend of global market for our country construction brought rare opportunities of development, but also made the traditional engineering assessment and cost management mode faced the challenge of connecting with the world. National standard "Construction of the Bill of Quantities Specification" (GB50500-2003) the implementation of the construction valuation model indicates that China has undergone a qualitative change in the fixed pricing from the bill of quantities to change, competition and cost management in the enterprise Forward to a more scientific and fair level. However, the traditional project cost estimation method of widespread cycle is long, slow shortcomings, it is hard to adapt to the current project cost estimation that is rapid and accurate. Fast and accurately predict this enterprise project actual cost is correct, thus make the foundation offer scientific decisions and decision-making, enhance the construction enterprise quotations of the competition ability. Water conservancy and hydropower engineering construction enterprise shall be according to their mastery of the information, management ability, construction technology level, on a fast, reasonable cost, to realize the prediction "scientific quotes" and "rational offer " . The probability of purchase can be successful, and after winning a bid to obtain a reasonable profit to enable them to survive in the fierce competition. Therefore this paper carried out water resources and hydropower engineering cost fast forecasting work based on historical data.The paper analyzed the domestic and international cost of hydroelectric engineering studies and cost projections, summarized the current status of the domestic cost advantages and disadvantages of prediction methods. In order to avoid the cycle of the traditional forecasting methods such as long, slower faults and consider time on the influence of cost, the hydropower project cost index into the model was proposed based on fuzzy mathematics of exponential smoothing of the dynamic cost fast forecasting model .And this paper put forward the use of the model to predict the cost of the concrete steps and methods. According to the needs of the construction enterprise, the model of our enterprise should establish engineering cost database to fulfill cost fast forecasting better, and form the enterprise special pricing tools. Finally, the case illustrated the dynamic fast forecasting model specific applications and obtained the desired results.