Study On The Risk Assessment Method For The System Of Water Conservancy And Hydropower Engineering

To build a resource-saving and green energy-based society, it is very important to change the structure of electric power sources through making full use of clean energy, and therefore to speed up the construction of water conservancy and hydropower projects, and to enhance the anti-risk ability of the water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Systems. The Chinese Government will devote major efforts to developing hydropower in its "12th Five-Year Plan". Presently many researches have been achieved on the risk assessment for deferent development stages of the water conservancies and hydropower projects, but most of these assessment methods and models are based on a part of the water resources and hydropower engineering system and this may lead to localization results. Therefore it is necessary to investigate in-depth the risk assessment theory and methods for the entire process of the water conservancy and hydropower projects development, including their planning, design, construction and operation management.In this dissertation, taking the Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering System (WCHES) as the object of study and considering the interactions among the risks of deferent development stages of the water conservancy and hydropower projects, the risk analysis and assessment methods for the WCHES were presented with different methods, such as A. D. HALL method, Fuzzy Mathematics, Weight Analysis Method, Systemic Risk Analysis and Assessment Method, etc. These theoretical research results were applied to the real engineering projects to improve the risk assessment theory and to provide theoretical guidance for safety assessment of water conservancy and hydropower engineering projects. Main contributions of this dissertation can be summarized as follows:(1) Analysis methods for WCHES were presented. Based on the definition of ACHEC, the risk factors were summarized for the all development stages, including planning, designing, construction, operation and management. The characters, functions, and structures of the holistic risk of WCHES were studied, and the impacts of the system risk element at the designing stage on system were investigated using finite element method with Ansys software.(2) Study on the Risk Identification and Management for the system of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering. This subject discussed a large number of uncertainly risk factors in the system of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, identified these uncertainly risk factors by the use of data mining and technology assessment form, on the basis of that, the subject took measures such as probability method, the export scoring method, Monte Carlo method, the direct integration method, Large-scale system goal programming method to do research on the risk assessment for the system of water conservancy and hydropower engineering.(3) The 3D model of A. D. HALL for WCHES was established. The uncertainty and the risk management for WCHES were analyzed from the perspectives of risk consequence and data mining, and the 3D model of A.D. HALL for WCHES was proposed by applying the A. D. HALL theory. The risk of the WCHES can be obtained through assessing the risk of each small component of the established 3D A. D. HALL model. The entire risk of a water conservancy and hydropower project can be assessed based on the relatively qualitative safety assessment criterion of WCHES.(4) Risk assessment methods for WCHES were studied based on 3D A.D. HALL Model.Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Systems are further discussed by adopting different ways such as the system theory, A.D.HALL, fuzzy, risk analysis and evaluation, etc. in the Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Systems risk analysis and assessment methods.In this article the water conservation water and electricity engineering system has been defined first.Based on this the methods of risk factor recognition have analyzed about the water conservation water and electricity engineering system.By the large-scale systems theory of A.D.HALL theory, the system of the water conservancy and hydropower project has been expressed its project's construction's entire process by the A.D.HALL three dimensional structure drawing.Through appraising the A.D.HALL each small unit risk of three-dimensional structure, thus the risk of system can be obtained.In this article, the water conservancy and hydropower project to build a system of three-dimensional structure of A.D.Hall. The complex of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, systems theory approach to the analysis. Water conservancy and hydropower projects on the A.D.Hall system analysis of three-dimensional structure to understand the progress of the construction of water conservancy and hydropower projects, and to carry out macro-control whole project. Keep abreast of water conservancy and hydropower project under construction, and is currently under construction for water conservancy and hydropower engineering problems in a timely manner the feasibility of improving the program to ensure the smooth water conservancy and hydropower project completed and put into normal application, play a water conservancy and hydropower project should be effectiveness of the national economy.(5) Study on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of risk for the system of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering.In this paper, the failure probability of the system expressed in the form of fuzzy numbers by the practical problems failure of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Systems. The possibility of the incident insteateds of the occurrence probability. It is calculated by means of fuzzy events for the top level of the average and deviation to get the top event probability distribution. IT is studied systematically the water resources and hydropower engineering system failure probability by Fuzzy event tree method.In this article, the water resources and hydropower engineering systems is derived the weight series, it is comprehensived evaluation conclusions by the water system risk assessment system.At the same time the fuzzy analysis method is to be used for analyzing the various risk factors.Water Resources and Hydropower projects also utilize the system's failure probability of a certain range of the distribution of L-R fuzzy function, it is combined with the event tree method, the failure probability analysis is important for water resources and hydropower engineering systems, this System is more closer to reality in the risk assessment.