Association Analysis Of Speculation And International Crude Oil Price Fluctuation

The attention are focused on International Petroleum Market after the fiercely price fluctuation in 2008, the turbulent market of petroleum. Many insiders consented that, the unstable factors such as the imbalance of supply and demand, deflation of US dollar, geopolitics etc. can not explain the soaring price of petroleum in international market. The hot money inflow into the futures market for crude oil was the chief criminal. The speculation caused the bubbles in oil price. So that whether the speculation can influent the international petroleum market, and how much can it impact the petroleum price.The paper mainly focuses on the correlation analysis on speculation and price fluctuation of international petroleum. The core point is that, the future trend of international petroleum price is determined by both the advanced speculators and traditional speculators. Excessive speculation by Index Investors pushes the upgrading of international petroleum oil, on the other side; the maximum anticipation from traditional speculators is the system border which blocks the price over-upsurge provisionally. The whole thesis consists of five sections:Chapter 1:Introduction. This chapter states the significance of selected subject, reviews and researches related literatures, demonstrates the researches and framework, methodology, indicates innovations and weakness etc. Differ from most existed articles, this paper is not concentrated on the discussion whether the speculation can influent the international petroleum price, but much deeply discuss How the speculation subjects impact the petroleum price, which is the pitch of the whole thesis.Chapter 2:International petroleum price and the fluctuation analysis. The analysis consists of three parts. Firstly, states the evolution of international petroleum market and the characteristics; secondly, analyses the forms of international petroleum price; thirdly, analyses the causes which impact the petroleum price, thus lead to the important impacts the speculation made to price fluctuation of petroleum in international marketChapter 3:The qualitative analysis of the international petroleum market speculation and petroleum price volatility. There are three parts. First part states the definition of Speculation, the characteristics, category and theory; second part analyses the speculative actions from subjects, opportunities and objects; third part further discusses the speculation's impacts on petroleum price based on the international petroleum market in 2008. Chapter 4:The quantitative analysis of the international petroleum market speculation and petroleum price volatility. It consists of three parts. First, selection of speculative index and price index; then, makes the causality test and correlation analysis on speculation and petroleum price volatility by demonstrating the relationships among the indexes and leading force in spot market (OPEC), traditional speculator (noncommercial position, investors' mood) and advanced speculator (index funds position), and make comparative analysis on the results. Finally analyses the gets the conclusion that future trend of international petroleum price is determined by both the advanced speculators and traditional speculators. Excess ion speculation by Index speculators pushes the upgrading of international petroleum oil, on the other side; the maximum anticipation from traditional speculators is the system border which blocks the price over-upsurge provisionally.Chapter 5:Suggestions on monitoring speculation in the international petroleum market. It's necessary for the Chinese government energy sector to set up a specialized agency to monitor on the movement for the international investors, especially the advanced speculator and investor sentiment, release the report on a regular basis in order to provide the information for the enterprise decision.