Research On The Speculation Degree Of Housing Market

China's real estate industry has got a rapid development since the real estate reform in 1998. Floor space of newly started and completed, together with the sales area of commercial residential buildings has been increasing, besides, the quality of the buildings improved continuously. Especially the residential real estate,being an important part of the real estate industry, has developed rapidly, the residential real estate has become a major livelihood projects which aims to solve the housing needs of the population. However, the rapid increase of housing price in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities has resulted in decreased household purchasing power supports in the housing market and price bubble in the accumulation, so many experts and scholars believe that has a greater relationship with speculative investment demands. In this context, this paper used the market price/purchasing price indicators as the core evaluation index system of residential real estate market speculation, and combined with the development situation of residential real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai or other first-tier cities, then it gives a systematic analysis and research on speculation degree of urban housing market.This paper argues that the degree of speculation indicators which is the key index of the healthy and stable development of housing market, so the exact measurement would be widely used in the housing macro-control and residential property investment. It can not only provide central government with important reference of accurate and appropriate housing control policies, but also so help the majority of small and medium investors get a clear understanding of the housing market bubble and then make accurate investment decisions. By empirical research,the paper indicates that the speculative bubble in first-tier cities'housing market is rapidly accumulated after 2009 so that it has reached serious proportions, at the same time that the per-capita disposable income of urban residents had a reasonable explanation of the purchasing power of housing prices, ml supply, bank loans and housing market regulation are the key factors of excessive speculation in the housing market, moreover, it also pointed out that excessive support of bank debt, little restrictions on M1 money flow and the expectations that every regulation will increase the housing prices which are caused by regulation policies are the direct cause of excessive speculative in the housing market. Using the way of qualitative analyse,this paper pointed out that the underlying causes of excessive speculation is that the design of the real estate tax and housing market structure is unreasonable, the housing security development is slow, and government is absence of accountability.Finally, on the basis of the reasons of excessive speculation in the housing market, the article promotes countermeasures which can curb excessive speculation and make development of residential real estate market stable and healthy.This paper is divided into three parts. The first part,which includes two sections,is the introduction. The 1st section(chapterⅠ)is an introduction, which presents the research background and practical significance, and it also gives a brief theoretical framework,objects and sample data intervals for empirical research.The 2ed section (ChapterⅡ) is literature review, using qualitative and quantitative ways,this section gives a brief description of current research both at home and abroad from the perspective of real estate speculation, and makes some appropriate analysis and comments on domestic and foreign theories and researches.The second part including four sections,is the body of this essay.The 1st section(ChapterⅢ:theoretical analysis of residential real estate speculation) describes the performance of residential real estate speculation,especially the theoretical foundation of market price/purchasing price indicators, and basing on the real housing needs of the urban households,it proposes that using the index as the core of the residential real estate market speculation evaluation system, the system through the analysis of different indicators, to fully reflect the gap between the purchasing power price and market price of the urban households.Using the evaluation index system, the 2ed section(ChapterⅣ: measurement of the speculation degree in residential real estate market) measures speculation degree of housing market in Beijing and Shanghai, draws a conclusion that the housing market in first-tier cities has been basically out of the real needs and households purchasing power supports, and that the market has been in a state of excessive speculation especially since the rapid increases in housing prices in 2009,at last it reveals the direct cause of excessive speculation in the market.The 3rd section (chapterⅤ:the causes of excessive speculation)elaborates the underlying causes of excessive speculation from the angle of real estate taxation, housing security, market structure and local government. In the 4th section(Chapter VI:countermeasures to curb speculation and promote healthy and stable development of the market), Articles from real estate taxation, housing security, market structure and the angle of analysis of local government housing underlying causes of excessive speculation; fourth part (ChapterⅥ) curb speculation promote stable and healthy development of the market countermeasures:Improve the real estate tax system through the pilot of property tax on on the part of the house and the reform of value-added tax and personal income tax adjustments; Meet the land and capital required of the security house through the reasonable supply arrangements of the land, clearly the dominant position of financial capital, more ways to get low-interest loans and pay close attention to the housing fund to support the construction of the security house; Optimize the housing market structure through a wide range of residential development patterns, great efforts to cultivate to the residential rental market and a reasonable guide to house consumption; Promote the market to have a rational correction through bring the completion proportion of residential land supply plan, the undevelopment between the cumulative purchase and development of land area and ratio between house prices than income and other indicators into the mechanism to evaluate the government performance.The third part is the conclusion of the thesis. It briefly summarized the level of residential real estate market speculation in first-tier cities and the related factors on housing prices, and proposed that the research of speculation degree plays a significant role in housing market regulation, further summarized the main points of long-term mechanism of real estate regulation. Finally, the authors also points out .innovation and deficiencies of the article.