Commercial Housing Speculation Degree Measurement And Empirical Analysis Based On Spatial Economic Model

Since the housing marketization reform practiced in our country, the real estateindustry began towards marketization and commercialization. The rapiddevelopment of real estate industry led to the rise of the whole national economy.Besides the rapid development of real estate the commercial housing prices also risesharply. At present, the main reason of the housing prices growth is the speculativedemand for housing which break the equilibrium of the housing supply and demand.As the commercial housing have both goods and investment nature. It is a stable wayto finance or invest. In view of the stock market downturn in recent years, somepeople put money into the housing market. In order to make a profit from thehousing price changes in a short time. Now there are some people have dozens ofsets of housing and while the low-income groups become the " dwelling narrowness"or "mortgage slave" in the society. This deformity of the social phenomenon ismainly due to the speculative activities led to the housing price deviated from thebasic value. This paper analyzes the housing speculative operation mechanism fromthe perspective of individual and group view, in order to find the impact of thespeculation on housing prices.The housing market is not isolated, with the flow of money, energy, material,housing prices are affected by each other between different provinces. This paperanalyzed the spatial relevance among different provinces based on spatialeconometrics. Through the calculation results of indexMo ran,I shows that China’shousing prices have a clear interaction among31provinces. And the housingspeculation behavior also influences each other in space. As one province’s houseprice change will affect people’s expectations of the neighboring provinces’ housingprice change, further lead to the speculative behavior of people and finally makes theneighboring provinces’ housing price change.Combine with the regional characteristics of the housing market in our country,the paper analyzes the speculation degree both in longitude and horizontal. Comparethe speculation degree of China’s housing market from1998to2011from longitudeaspect and31provinces’ from horizontal aspect. The results show that there isspeculation activity in our country, but from a global perspective, the degree ofspeculation is in the safety zone or the alert area and haven’t reached the danger zone.Which shows housing market in China is still at a relatively healthy level on thewhole. Although there exist larger regional housing speculation, but speculation hasnot yet appeared global. Horizontally on the analysis of31provinces show that house speculation degree size among different regions is different. Some provincessuch as Hainan and Shanghai exceed the international warning line of speculationdegree, while some western provinces sizes are very small. For the basic consumerdemand of western provinces’ resident is mainly to improve the living conditions.And the empirical analysis also basically accord with the situations of our country atpresent.In this paper, the writer selects nine indicators to analyze factors that affect thehousing speculation according to the characteristics of China’s housing speculationbehavior. As housing speculation is an uncertainty behavior which contains a lot ofunknown information, the author use the grey correlation model to carry on thecomprehensive analysis. It quantitatively analyzes the impact of the selectedindicators on housing speculation degree.