The Relationship Research On China's Electricity Consumption And Economic Growth

In recent years, electricity consumption has been one of most important way in energy consumption. The internal dependency between electricity consumption and economic growth has been the hot and focus of academic research. As one of the world's fastest growing economies, the electricity production and consumption in China is the second largest country of the world. The great achievements in economic development and the rapid growth of electricity consumption become the focus of attention. Since 2003, there are many problems happened in the relationship between electricity and economic growth. On the one hand, the phenomenon of power shortage and power cuts frequently happened in some provinces of our country severely limited the smooth and rapid economy. The rational energy planning has become the outstanding issues in the process of rapid economic growth. On the other hand, on the other hand, the index of electricity consumption will confused with GDP when economy developed not smoothly, so it makes uncertain between judgments of economy development trend and macro-control policy-making, and have caused highly concern in community. As the basis power of China's economic development, the supply and demand of electricity not only affects the steady growth of China's major macroeconomic, but also has a great effect on the sustainable economic development in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to research he relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in China.The domestic and foreign scholars have carried out extensive research on the intrinsic relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth, and produced many literatures. Owing to different literatures focus on different countries and territories, and have different samples and modeling techniques, the relationship between these has been unable to reach a consensus. This article conducts nonlinear STR models and panel data model technology to study the relationship between power consumption and economic growth of China. And base on this relationship, use empirical analysis to analyze the relationship between economic growth in different regions and electrical consumption, and conclude as followings:(1)changes in China's power consumption is significant nonlinear characteristics, and the relationship can be described as LSTR1;(2)In non-linear structural relations, power consumption is more significant by its structure,when current electricity consumption growth rate is higher than 18.017 percent, it will make the former period's economic growth on the lagged impact of electricity consumption inhibited by the negative into positive,and the former one GDP1% growth will lead to 1.12593% increase in electricity consumption;(3)changes of China's power consumption has phase characteristics:in year 1954-1973, electricity consumption in obvious nonlinear characteristics; but since 1974,the performance of the power consumption has become the linear characteristics. (4)Central and western parts has higher efficiency on electricity use and the capital stock of the impact on power consumption than eastern part.(5)The eastern region is stronger than the Midwest area in the field labor input variables influence the power consumption.