Study On Relationship Between Electricity Consumption And Economic Growth And Analysis On Short-term Prediction Of Electricity Demand In Anhui Province

Anhui province is in a critical period of economic transformation and upgrading.in order to achieve the coordinated development of power industry and economy,should have a comprehensive understand and master of the relationship between the whole society of electricity consumption and economy.At the same time,in order to guarantee the development of electric power to meet the requirements of social development,It need to master the change rule of electricity consumption and forecast the power consumption situation reasonable,this can not only guide the planning and construction of electric power,achieve the reasonable planning and allocation of resources,but also can provide reference for future economic and power policy.First,this article describes the level of economic development and the whole society power consumption status in Anhui province since 1990,and the trend ofindustrial structure change since 1978,from the aspects of absolute quantity indicator and relative quantity indicator analyze the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth of Anhui province.In absolute quantity indicator,GDP and electricity consumption have the same change trend;In relative quantity indicator,there is an association between consumption per unit of GDP and industrial structure.Then,Using the economic data and power data in anhui province,using econometric method,analyse the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in anhui province comprehensively.Mainly explores the following questions:the relationship between whole society electricity consumption and the real GDP in Anhui province;the relationship between whole society electricity consumption and other major evaluation indexs of economic growth in Anhui province;Using H-P filtering method to decompose the the trend component and fluctuation component of the whole society power consumption and real GDP composition.Before the econometric model analysis,using the Pearson correlation coefficient test and the autocorrelation test qualitative analyze the correlation of whole society power consumption and GDP,as well as the added value and electricity consumption of each industrial.On account of both time series electricity consumption and GDP exists autocorrelation,therefore,choose cointegration theory to analyze,and set the corresponding error correction model of the whole society power consumption and GDP,as well as the added value and electricity consumption of each industrial.Cointegration theory suggests that there is long-term stable equilibrium relationship between whole society power consumption and real GDP,in system analysis of the economic development and the whole social electricity consumption,Granger causality analysis results show the existence of unidirectional Granger causality from the whole society of electricity to GDP.According to the study on the added value and electricity consumption of each industrial,cointegration theory shows that the second industrial electricity consumption and the added value of the second industry,the third industrial electricity consumption and the added value of the third industry has long-term stable equilibrium relationship,Granger causality analysis results show the existence of unidirectional Granger causality from the added value of second industry to the second industry power consumption,as well as from the third industry power consumption to the added value of third industry.Finally,study short-term prediction of Anhui electric power demand.Based on the timeliness,uncertainty,complexity of electricity consumption forecast,on the basis of electricity short-term prediction research,using grey prediction method,time trend extrapolation method to longitudinal analysis annual electricity consumption data,to establish annual model.through short-term forecasting of electricity study found that,as long as have enough data,the time trend extrapolation of fitting and forecasting precision is high.And because of the industrial electricity consumption trend and characteristics is different,divided the whole society power consumption into the first industrial electricity consumption,the second industrial electricity consumption,the third industrial electricity consumption,and electricity consumption of resident to predict separately have higher fitting precision.