Research On The Development Cycle Of China's Textile Industry Based On Economic Cycle Theory

The study of the economic cycle since the industrial revolution, especially from the first crisis in 1825, is very much the concern of theorists at home and abroad. The research in capitalist economic crisis and recession had promoted the development of the theory. In late 2007, the global financial tsunami which triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis impacted national economies, that set off the concern of the economic cycle theory. In this new trend, the theory of innovation and development that the Austrian economist J.A.Schumpeter advocated stood out in a number of theories, and had been widely recognized. However, there is very little theoretical research in further application of innovation theory to specific areas of the industry.Also in this financial tsunami, the textile industry has been a huge impact. China's textile exports sharp drop, and many businesses failures. Since 2008, the industry took a downturn. But scholars discuss the development of the textile industry and research focused on policy measures, such as industrial restructuring, upgrading industrial transfer.This article attempts to apply the economic cycle theory to specific areas of the textile industry, explore the innovation and development of textile industry links with the economic cycle, and the characteristics and regularity in the development process. Using historical analysis and econometric methods, it firstly discusses the relevance and the same trend between the world economic cycle and the development of world textile industry, secondly analysis the characteristics of every ten years'economic cycle from China's reform and opening up, and the technology and system innovation of the textile industry in each expansion phase. Then find the proposals for China's textile industry to begin a new round of development.First, the paper summarizes innovation theory and other related theories about economic cycle and. It is very reasonable, and logical to discuss the innovative development of industry base on the innovation theory which is explained the economic cycle.Second, the author, with the historical analysis, summarize the development process of the world textile industry along with the economic cycle and the technological progress at every stage which have promoted the development., thus theoretically revealed the regularity of textile industry development, and the link between the economic cycle.Third, when research in the development of China's textile industry periodic contact with the world economy, use textile exports and world GDP two indicators to make correlation analysis, regression analysis, HP filter trend and cycle analysis, and from the perspective of the data further confirmed the fluctuation in the cycle on both the similarity and relevance.Finally, this article summarizes the symbol of technological and institutional innovation in each cycle that promoted the development of China's textile industry, and shows the direction and the next round of development proposals.The theoretical value and innovation is the theory of macroeconomic cycles applied to the textile industry, summed up its development cycle regularity and characteristics. That innovation is the engine of a new round growth for textile industry.