The Study Of Early-warning Financing Risk Model To High-tech Listed Companies

The Twelfth Five-year Program advances the change of economic development mode. In the process of implementing innovation national strategies, high and new technology has become primary growth of economic development. As the increase of High-tech Listed Companies, the study of early- warning financing risk model is more far-reaching to warn financing risk, regulate financing structure and protect the interests of investors and creditors. At present the study of early- warning financing risk model to High-tech Listed Companies is less by domestic scholars and mostly study confines to univariate early warning model. But these researches have been unable to satisfy High-tech Listed Companies to warn financing risk timely and accurately. Therefore, this paper builds a early- warning financing risk model to High-tech Listed Companies based on analyzing the present situation of High-tech Listed Companies warning financing risk, combined with High-tech Listed Companies' financial indicators.First, this paper fixes 17 primary financial indicators based on the indicators issued by the Ministry of Finance. Secondly, we choose 22 ST companies and corresponding 22 non-ST companies attaining verification of enterprise with superior and new technology as samples in listed companies from 2007 to 2008, and carry out significant test & correlation test to samples' financial indicators with SPSS software, then filter out four independent financial indicators as argument of model. Thirdly, we build the early- warning financing risk model to High-tech Listed Companies in T-1 and T-2 based on fisher discrimination analysis. At last, this paper offers suggestions from the standpoint of building & applying the early- warning financing risk model and the management of warning financing risk in High-tech Listed Companies.By testing modeling sample and examined samples, we deem that the early-warning financing risk model to High-tech Listed Companies based on fisher discrimination analysis is effective:the precision of T-1 model is 87.04%, the precision of T-2 model is 81.48%.The more close to the year of ST, the higher accuracy of the model.