Research On Early-warning Financing Risk To Pharmaceutical Industry Listed Companies

The pharmaceutical industry is closely related to economic development and people's life.It plays an important role in the development of national economy.Because of its particularity,the pharmaceutical industry has became a sunrise industry with rapid growth and broad market prospects.In 2009,the government introduced the "new medical reform";During the period of "12th Five-Year",modern Chinese medicine and biomedicine technology industry has been listed as the focus of national development..During the period of "13th Five-Year",our country will deepen the medical and health system reform and implementation the "three doctors linkage",to be focused on "health China" of the development of pharmaceutical industry.Although the overall development of the pharmaceutical industry is good at this stage,there are many financial problems that cannot be ignored,which restrict the development of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry.Both the operation and financial problems of the pharmaceutical industry have potential risks.Therefore,in this thesis,we study the financial risk early warning of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry,in order to provide reference for the financial risk prevention and control of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry.The main contents of this thesis include:(1)The financial risk early warning index system of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry is designed.According to the special nature of the pharmaceutical industry,from the non-financial point of view,we get early warning indicators of financial risk primary pharmaceutical industry listed companies from the profitability,solvency,operation ability and cash flow ability and the ability to develop the financial angle and the size of the company,R&D investment and so on,then use the Logistic regression to analysis the selected index.Finally the financial risk early warning the index system of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry is designed.(2)The financial risk early warning index model of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry is constructed.The established pharmaceutical industry of the financial risk early warning index system of the listed companies is determined the weight by using principal component analysis.And then according to the score coefficient matrix,the financial risk early warning individual index of the listed companies of the pharmaceutical industry is synthesized.And according to the variance contribution rate of the principal component,the comprehensive index of financial risk early warning of the listed companies of the pharmaceutical industry is synthesized.Finally,according to the pharmaceutical industry listed company's financial risk early warning index threshold and early-warning level decision rules,financial risk will be divided the pharmaceutical industry listed companies into no warning,light warning,alarm and alarm in the heavy four regions.The financial risk early warning index model of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry is constructed finally.(3)The financial risk early-warning and positioning of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry are analyzed.Based on the main financial data of the pharmaceutical industry listed companies from 2012 to 2016 in the past 5 years and the early warning results of financial risk,we further analyze the alert of individual index.The innovation points of this thesis are as follows:(1)The Logistic regression analysis is used to select the index system,and the financial risk early warning index system of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry is constructed.(2)The principal component analysis is used to weight the financial risk early-warning index,and get the financial risk early warning individual index and comprehensive index of pharmaceutical industry listed companies.(3)According to the warning degree of the comprehensive index of financial risk,we put forward the alarm degree of the individual index that caused the alarm degree,and traced the risk.