Analysis Of Financial Early-warning For The Listed-companies Of Manufacturing Industing In China

With the deepening of economic reform in China,more and more companies will have to faced fierce competition. If a firm operate unsuccessfully,it will be hard to avoid going bankruptcy. Because more and more policies about security supervision and management will be set down by CSRC, many listed companies will have to become "special treatment" or "particular treatment" companies. Even some of these companies will be eliminate from the list of stock exchange. Therefore,in many cases,finding ways to try to identify failing companies as early as possible is clearly a mater of considerable interest to manager investors,creditors and auditors. One way to the aim is to predict financial distress of companies.This rhesis is on the basis of drawing lessons from there search results of this field. And it has comparatively described the definition, function, purpose and important meaning of the early warning system of enterprise's financial affairs systematically. Taking China's listed companies characteristics into consideration, this thesis reviews the study status both in China and in abroad and summarizes the variable selection and researching techniques. The key content of this thesis is concerned with listed-companies of manufacturing industry and symbolized by ST. It uses stepwise method, collects 34 variables covering the financial conditions of listed-companies of manufacturing industry, makes use of the financial data, finds accurate variables to predict and establish the listed-company of manufacturing industry financial distress early-warning model that is suitable in our country.At the same time, the thesis uses the data in 2003 to examine the model validity and usefulness. Finally, this thesis carries on the summary and proposes the innovation and the limitation.