Risk Analysis Of The EPC Contract

The EPC general contract model has become the mainstream contract model of the international construction market. The international general contractors derive a profit with their own management and technical advantages. In China, EPC mode has been applied only in the electric power, chemical and other industries. The space to promote is still very great for more general contractor which can be involved. EPC model covering the whole process of implementation of the project, and the general contractor have to bear most of risk because of EPC model's large scale, long duration, complex technique and the many links implementation. In terms of the general contractor, how to make scientific and rational project risk analysis, to deal with such a large and complex risk is particularly important. This is the problems that our country needs to explore in implementing the EPC general contract model.This thesis firstly introduce the EPC general contract model and the theory of risk analysis; analyzes the main contents and characteristics of the EPC general contract model, the meaning of risk and project risk, and the three steps in project risk analysis: risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation. Secondly, this thesis based on the risk analysis theory to analyze the general contractor. Then start the risk identification from the general contractor, classifying risk, using several identification methods to deeply analyzing the risk factors and risk events of the general contractor, and creating a detailed list of risks. Thirdly, this thesis establish a general contractor risk estimation models, create a quantitative approach of risk probability and risk loss, quantitatively analyzing by using expert survey scoring method. In the general contractor's risk evaluation, according to the features of multiple unascertained information in EPC project, this thesis introduce unascertained mathematics, establish the unascertained measure risk evaluation model based on elaborating the principles of unascertained measure, and information entropy theory. Then, quantitative evaluating the general contractor's risk individually and sort to determine the overall risk level, all of the content above can provide a basis for future decision-making.At last, this thesis combine the case of the2×110MW coal-fired power plant project in Aceh of Indonesia, analyzing the general contractor's risk. This example shows the risk analysis is valid but also contribute to the general contractor on the understanding of EPC project risk, and provide references to the general contractor in risk analyzing.