The Adjustment Of Industrial Structure In The Backgroud Of Population Aging In China

The Adjustment of Industrial Structure in The Background of Population Aging in ChinaIn the background of population aging around the world,China entered the era of population aging in 1999. According to the population statistics ,in around 2025, the aging population in China will reach the first peak, because of the"Chinese baby boomers"were born in about 1960.That means China can not depend on the adequate labor as an advantage to support its economic growth in the next 20 years——the"demographic dividend"will disappear. The change of the Chinese age structure which impacting on its employment structure , distribution and consumption structure will influence its industrial structure. Therefore, China need not only upgrade its industry, but also through the technical research, human capital accumulation, etc. to achieve the optimization within each industry.In this paper, it uses the literature indexing, data analysis and other research methods to analyze the Chinese population age structure. Then it summarizes the main problems faced by China during the era of population aging, and analyzes the impacting on the industrial restructuring by the population ageing. Based on that, this article makes relevant policy recommendations.This paper has five parts:The first part is the introduction which describes the significance and the background of this topic.Firstly, it gives a systematical introduction on the world's population age structure, the situation of Chinese population aging and Chinese industrial structure, further it summarizes the relationship between the aging and industrial structure. Secondly, this article gives the relative concept definition, and then it introduces the innovation and the defects of this paper.The second part describes the background of the global population aging and the characteristics of that in China.This section consists of two parts——introduce the background of the global population aging and its new features in China which is different from the developed countries. More specifically, from the geographic differences and the differences between urban and rural to compare with developed countries. In addition, the article analyzes the decision factors of the Chinese population ageing.The third part researches that the population aging affecting on the industrial structure from the theory aspect.Changes in the population age structure will usually cause the fluctuations in the saving rate, consumption structure, labor supply and dependency ratio. Accordingly that will affect the investment market, industrial structure, labor supply and the efficiency of the productivity.The paper gives a further summarizes on the theories about population and industrial structure. For instance, the"Petty-Clark theorem"reveals that the process of advancement of industrial structure by per capita income of each industry. In the Lewis's dual economy model, it reveals the labor transfer between the two sectors, the conclusion is when the surplus labor in agriculture completely absorbed by the modern sector, the labor supply market will enter the era of integration, then the"Lewis turning point"will appear. In the era of population aging, labor shortage situation appears, especially for the developing countries that will speed up the arrival of Lewis turning point, at that time the labor market will make a free and open competition. In addition, the paragraph gives a brief introduction of other theories.The fourth part gives the detailed analysis of the population aging impacting on Chinese industrial structure.The industrial structure in China is in the process of constantly upgrading. However, due to Chinese special policy, it resulted in significant decrease of fertility. Thus the problem of population aging arrived in ahead, the change in the population age structure influences the economic development and industrial structure in various fields.On the one hand, population aging has impact on the employment structure. Chinese aging population resulted in the labor shortage, so that will lead a decline of the employment levels. Adequate labor supply provides two benefits for China in the past few years, the one is the population dependency ratio showing a downward trend during this period. The other is the cheap labor bringing China a lasting"demographic dividend", and it also impact the Chinese urban and rural employment structure.On the other hand, population impact on the distribution area. Compared with the developed countries, China has got to"old before getting rich"situation. In the item of population aging, the total wealth will be allocated to the old-age security, health care and other fields through increasing taxation or the public welfare spending.In addition, the consumption structure is influenced by the population aging through two ways. The one is the"saving rate"as the intermediate variable will influence the consumption, the other is that aging population will generate new consumer demand and the related industries emergency.The fifth part gives the policy recommendations on the adjustment of the industrial structure in the background of aging population.The pace of industrial structure upgrading under the pressure of population aging is far too slow. The population aging requires on the industry not only in the three industries upgrading but also on the optimization within the industry, which achieve the produce transferred from"high consumption, low output and low efficiency"to"high output, high efficiency and low consumption". The policy recommendations include promoting the"elderly industry", to speed up the transition from the traditional to modern service industry and emphasis on the human capital.