| In the 21 st century,Child dependency ratio is declining year by year,while older dependency is increasing year by year.The disappearance of population dividend means that the peak of the population aging is about to come and the value of labor is reducing.As a result,Chinese aging population problem is become more and more serious.And The seriousness and necessity of the pension problem surfaced.The adjustment of industrial structure of Inner Mongolia is on a bottleneck time.Inner Mongolia is a region with rich resources,vast area and sparsely populated areas.Aging of population impact the social and economic of Inner Mongolia.And it also has an impact on the industrial structure of Inner Mongolia.With the deeping of aging of population in Inner Mongolia,Inner Mongolia population structure has been changed,working age population is reducing.The lack of labor population lead to accelerate the transition to technology-intensive industries.From the demand point of view,the aging population make the silver-haired industry to develop rapidly,to expand consumption and to promote the development of the tertiary industry.Therefore,the aging of the population is a double-edged sword,both opportunities and challenges for the industrial structure.This paper takes Inner Mongolia population aging and industrial structure as the research object.At first,we accord to the research content and purpose to retrieve the literature,to collect information,to analyse the status of theoretical research at home and abroad,which these supply some research basis for the population aging and industrial structure adjustment research.Secondly,Based on the theory of population agingandtheindustrial structure,this paper makes clearly the rationalization of industrial structure and the standard of industrial structure.Thirdly,though collectingthe Inner Mongolia calendar year census data and statistical yearbook data analysis the development statue of aging population and industrial structure.This paper uses the DPS software to predict the future development trend of aging population of Inner Mongolia.The relationship between the aging of the population and the tertiary industry was analysis by the gray relational analysis method.Fourthly,the data of the 1980-2015 were collected to establish the VAR model.The effects of population aging on the rationalization and standardization of the industrial structure were analyzed by cointegration test,impulse response analysis and variance method.Fifth,according to the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis put forward some policy recommendations.Through the study,some characteristics can be seen that the population of the elderly in Inner Mongolia is increasing;the proportion of the elderly population becomes higher,the trend of population aging is clear;population aging urban and rural inverse.Inner Mongolia industrial structure is still to maintain the "two three one " model.But from 2011 to 2015,secondary industry in Inner Mongolia develop slowly.The tertiary industry develop speed.And the tertiary industry absorb more labors than the secondary industry.According to the empirical analysis,firstly,the population aging in Inner Mongolia has a hindrance to the rationalization of the industrial structure in the short term.Then it have a promote effect for the industrial structure.The influence of the aging of the population to the rationalization of the industrial structure is weakened in the long run.Secondly,The aging of population in Inner Mongolia has a positive effect on the advancement of industrial structure.With the passage of time,the reaction enhance.the promotion of the advanced structure of the industry,and with the passage of time,to promote the role of enhanced.Finally,according to the findings of the recommen dations: the government actively promote the two child policy;to strengthen the traditional industrial technology innovation;vigorously develop the pension industry;promote community pension construction;improve the social security. |
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