An Empirical Analysis Of Rural Residents' Consumption Excessively Sensitivity And Its Influencing Factors

The paper quotes classic consumer hypothesis, consumer excess sensitivity theory and empirical analysis method by using the quantitative of rural residents in consumption status and influence factors in quite comprehensively analysis and studies, so as to get useful research achievements, the rural consumption market for start-up provides the theory and policy basis.The rural consumer have quite strong consumption habitual, the consumer not only related to the current income, but also largely with the former consumption, this shows that the the rural consumer not only before but also after; The habit before reform is superior to the late of reform, this is mainly because, the late of reform of the government increased the late rural support, countryside inhabitant's income is stable, and then makes consumption compare smooth; in the ample period of 1985-1997 during the savings of rural residents for negative wealth effect coefficient, this indicate that the current consumption of rural residents is reverse relationship form the previous final account balance, that is when the latter increases in spending reduce rural residents, this is mainly because this stage for reforming and opening early from planned economy, just the transition to a market economy development mode, the rural economy was weak, filled with many uncertain, improve the rural residents precautionary saving demand, and that rural residents still in a savings tradition makes when saving balance increase, when consumption may be reduced. In contrast,the sample during the period of 1998-2009 for rural residents 0.019 wealth effect, savings on rural residents phase one percentage point, to savings balance increase in spending will increase rural residents 0.019 percentage points, shows that this stage exists wealth effect; the sample period in 1985 to 1997, permanent income during the rural residents and temporary income marginal propensity to consume the marginal propensity to consume 0.53 and 0.607 respectively; In the sample period 1998-2009 permanent income and temporary income during the marginal propensity to consume 0.587 and 0.954 respectively, permanent income lower than the marginal propensity to consume the temporary income marginal propensity to consume, do not accord with permanent income hypothesis theory. According to the conclusion, which ramsay 22 provinces rural residents belong to risk preference model, the interest rate is less than that of the income effect, show that the substitution effect cut interest rates will increase rural residents in these areas of the current consumption.Since the reform and open policy, our country rural residents' consumption in excess sensitivity coefficient between 0.6 -0.82 fluctuation, efficiently than developed countries the level of 0.2-0.6, suggesting the consumption of rural residents has strong current income increasing household income excess sensitivity, the policy will benefit social total consumption increase; Our country rural consumer excess sensitivity exist strong regional diversity, when, after introducing rate model besides Beijing, Shanghai, Shanxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Xinjiang and Guangxi this seven provinces outside the rest of the 22 provinces of less than zero interest rate coefficient estimates a reverse relationship.Based on the impulse response function method and variance decomposition method of vector auto-regressive model for since the reform and opening up, the consumption of the residents affecting our country rural area factors for dynamic analysis. From the analysis can be concluded that the permanent income, and temporary income, natural uncertainty, market uncertainty and national economic development and liquidity constraints of rural residents' consumption all have certain effect, the market uncertainty and national economic development, the second is the biggest influence permanent income, natural uncertainty and liquidity constraints, temporary income less affected. Therefore, in order to increase rural consumer should stabilize the market agricultural prices, increasing household income, increase of persistent of the affected area, reduce the influence of rescue liquidity.