Study Of Energy Purchaser's Bidding Strategy In Bilateral Transaction Power Market Based On Fuzzy Theory

With incomplete and uncertain information under bilateral transaction power market environment, this paper introduces fuzzy theory to study the purchaser's bidding strategy. Main discusses the purchaser's bidding strategy in contract transaction and bidding transaction. The method that proposed could show a reference for the purchasers to make its bidding strategies in future bilateral transaction.The study includes the main five aspects:First, it researches the current situation of bilateral transaction power market in developed countries and our country, analyzes the chief research methods of the purchaser's bidding strategy at present. Second, the paper analyzes main factors that affect the purchaser's bidding strategy. Third, it discusses the transaction rules of bilateral transaction. Moreover, on contract transaction, the paper studies the purchaser's bidding strategy based on fuzzy game. At last, on bidding transaction, the paper studies the purchaser's bidding strategy based on fuzzy neural network.In contract transaction, this paper proposes fuzzy clustering method to choose negotiation mate. Then it uses fuzzy probability to describe the incomplete information of power market. Based on this, it analyzes the nash equilibrium bidding strategies in a bilateral negotiation and the optimal bidding strategy of the energy purchaser. Meanwhile, it introduces agent to achieve the bilateral negotiation between the buyer and the supplier. The agents can update fuzzy probability using the negotiation information and improve its bidding strategy. With an example, the advantage of this method for the purchaser is proved.In bidding transaction, this paper studies the profits of purchaser and points that the optimal bidding strategy of the energy purchaser is to bid a price that a little higher than the forecast price to obtain the minimum transaction price, then the purchaser can maximize its profit. Through the analysis, the paper uses fuzzy neural network to forecast the purchaser's price which corresponding the minimum transaction price and sets up a purchaser's bidding strategy model based on fuzzy neural network. Finally, the actual data of NETA power market were used to prove the validity of this method.