A Study On Bidding Strategies With Fuzzy Cause-effect Cost Method

It is crucial to provide practical bidding strategy and to supply feasible bidding curve with the setup of East China Power Market(ECPM). Besides costs and requirements, a bidding strategy should consider more factors such as market rules , standard method of settlement and grid congestion . Indeed, the effect of elements on bidding strategy may be reflected by costs curve and demand curve. Thus ,the main research work is focused on how to decide bidding curve coefficient per costs curve and demand curve, which is concerned about the following aspects:1. The possibility of Fuzzy Cause-effect Costs Bidding Method(FCECBD) is analyzed. After examining costs of thermal generators , it is available to use horizontal line segment as bidding curve, and along with the bidding curve only have constant term, when marginal cost tendency is contrary to bidding curve tendency which is required by market rules.2. Fuzzy Cause-effect Costs Bidding Method model is presented . Firstly , the cost model, which is applied to obtain break-even price and constrain condition of FCECBD , is created by Activity Linear Regression method .Then enterprise behaviors ,which are generated during deciding bidding curve coefficient via costs curve and demand curve out of maximum profit, is studied in different market modes. After above procedure it is achieved that behaviors of plants of different status in ECPM should be clearing their electricity quantity to get profit. Different generators respectively exploy differnt means, which are recorded in a mathematic frame with fuzzy system ,to clear their electricity quantity. To make fuzzy system general, characteristic variables shoud be seeked, so dominance and pressure risk degree are selected as input variables and regulating factor as output variables. If the fuzzy system is given numerical value of input variables then it will automatically calculate the regulating factor of FCECBD ,and gain price change amplitude. Hence last month bidding price plus price change amplitude equals this month bidding price.3. The artificial case simulated by Fuzzy Cause-effect Costs Bidding Method indicate that the quadratic function of which quadratic coefficient is greater than zero is chosen as approximating costs function during bidding strategy research.. Simulation shows the generator is not able to always approach the sweet point of size effect. Analysis and comparison illustrate that FCECBD has the characters as intelligence and conservation and strong adaptability.4. One bidding support system which contained Fuzzy Cause-effect Costs Bidding Method is introduced .In the last chapter, not only all of the research work accomplished in this thesis is summarized, but also future improvement work is pointed out.