The Related Research Of Credit Constraint, Fluctuation Of Real Estate Market And Macroeconomics

Reviewing the subprime crisis 2008 and occurred economic crisis, we realize that: severe fluctuations in price of real estate bring huge damage in macro-economics. And severe fluctuations in real estate price are mostly decided by the restriction of credit. Therefore, research of interaction among restriction of credit, real estate price and fluctuation of macro-economics, could help us in understanding of economic cycle, precognition of economic fluctuation.The research also goes towards to carrying out of monetary policy and prevention of economic crisis. This thesis will proceed in literature review of research of restriction of credit, real estate price and fluctuation of macro-economics. As for the interaction of them in national scope, this thesis will provide positive analyst by using VAR. It gets the conclusion is that in a practical situation of China, there is an interaction connect the restriction of credit, real estate price and economic cycle.There is no causal relationship between house price and rate. The rate policy in China has little influence in house price. The relationship between House price and macro-economic is stable. But unbalance in short-term. The relationship between housing price and GDP is mutual cause-effect. It uses General equilibrium mode to confirm the relationship and the interaction. It designs a method that monetary policy transmit to macro-economic by real estate price in open economic system towards using CGE mode. It discusses the related economic elements that may influence the interaction, including local governmental action, financial supervision inflation objective, etc.