Application Research On The Internet Diffusion In China Based On Spatial-Temporal Model Of Technology Innovation

The number of internet users is an important index reflecting a country's internet popularity, therefore,analyzing and forecasting the number of internet users is helpful for government and enterprises to better grasp the internet development. At present, Many scholars at home and abroad forecast the number of internet users from innovation diffusion perspective, the main model of innovation diffusion model applicated is Bass model and its extended model. Bass model mainly analyze the internet diffusion condition in the overall market over time. But the government and enterprise are more concerned about the internet diffusion condition in each regional, so it's necessary to research the process of internet diffusion in China mainland from the perspective of space-time unified. There is few research in this area, hence, it's very necessary to research internet diffusion in China mainland overall market and each regional integrating the time factor and the space factor.At present, a few of domestic scholars research the spatial-temporal diffusion process of internet in China mainland. The model mainly used is KangKai's innovation diffusion model based on quality space. Applying innovation diffusion model based on quality space not only embodies the spatial-temporal diffusion process of each area, but can reflect the area heterogeneity. However, the model use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to sort comprehensive quality of each domain in empirical research, the absolute value of the comprehensive quality of each domain is diffucult to define and the operability is low. Hense, using an innovation diffusion model that can better reflect the spatial-temporal diffusion process to research internet diffusion rule in China mainland general and each region is very necessary.Therefore, the paper used a new spatial-temporal model of technique innovation diffusion to describe and analysis the internet diffusion process in China mainland. This model is based on Bass model, includes distace, regional area, population distribution and other factors. Using this model's advantages are: 1) Study the internet diffusion process in every provinces in China mainland respectively and based on this study China mainland's overall diffusion process, overcome the Bass model's defects that can't simultaneously describe and analyze the internet diffusion process in each area and overall. 2) Model considers the region character heterogeneity, has an empirical study on internet diffusion in China mainland and comparies with Bass model, the result showes that the spatial-temporal model of innovation diffusion has better goodness of fit and higher prediction accuracy and better explain ability.In this paper, firstly analyzes the world's internet market diffusion condition and mainly analyze China mainland's world's internet market diffusion condition. Based on the above, introduces the basic model that study internet diffusion and analyzes the limitations of existing research model and explain the reasons and advantages of spatial-temporal diffusion model. Secondly, introduces the establishment and derivation process of spatial-temporal model. adopts a new spatial-temporal model of technology innovation diffusion, takes 31 provinces and cities in China mainland as analysis units, simulates and forecasts the internet diffusion process in each region of China mainland, and based on the above analysis, research the mainland general diffusion process, overcomes the defects of previous study which ignored regional diffusion. Thirdly, compared with the approximating and forecasting effect of Bass, the result shows that the spatial-temporal model of technology innovation diffusion has better fitting effect and higher forecasting accuracy and is more suitable to approximate and forecast the internet diffusion process in China mainland. In addition, the approximating and forecasting of internet diffusion process in China mainland and each region provides basis for government and enterprises'decision. Finally, the paper forecasts the internet diffusion trend in China mainland overall and each region.