Supply Chain Risk Evaluation Of China's Electricity-coal Based On W-SVM

As China's primary energy, coal is playing an irreplaceable role in the development of the national economy. And in a long period of time, China's energy industry will continue to adhere to the principle that electricity is the core, coal is the foundation and both of them should develop in an integration way. This determines that the security of electricity-coal supply chains is not only an economic problem but also has great effects on the safe operation of the national economy and the stability of people's lives. On this background, this article focuses on the risk of China's electricity-coal supply chains and has significant theoretical and practical values.Supply chain risk is uncertainty and accident that can baffled and break the safe operation of supply chains, that can pull down the efficiency of supply chains and raise costs. It may even cause the failure and collapse of supply chain network and make it fail to achieve the anticipated targets. And it may also reduce the competitiveness of supply chains and enterprises. Electricity-coal supply chain is a large complicated system, including the upstream of coal suppliers, middle-stream of logistics service providers and downstream of coal-fired power stations. Because of the long length and large number of links, it's quite difficult to do supply chain risk assessment and management. This paper aims to provide decision support for supply chain risk control through identification and evaluation of risk factors of China's electricity-coal supply chains.On the basis of defining the supply chain of China's electricity-coal, synthetically using Delphi method, flow chart and decomposition method, this paper identifies and analyzes the risk of electricity-coal supply chains. In consideration of the scientific and comprehensive principle and index data's accessibility, this paper establishes the index system of China's electricity-coal supply chain risk assessment using quantitative and qualitative methods. On large number of collected data, this paper evaluates China's electricity-coal supply chain risk and does the sensitivity analysis using MATLAB software and W-SVM method. And strategies and suggestions have been proposed to improve China's electricity-coal supply chain.