Price Forming Mechanism And Trend Of Commercial Housing Price In Zhengzhou

Real Estate industry has become to be the important pillar of China's economic development As the reform further development. The housing market is an important edition piece of real estate industry, its price fluctuation will directly influence the residents welfare. Due to our housing prices fluctuate have the significant influence to livelihoods and economic development, therefore, to fully recognize and understand city residential price influence factors and mechanism has the important practical significance.This article through the literature study and field survey to definite the commodity housing price influence factors, established the multivariate linear regression model and the time series model, analyzed the factors of commodity housing price, forecasted the future trend of commodity house price in Zhengzhou for next three years, the main work is as follows:1. Built system of influencing factors on commercial housing prices in Zhengzhou.The author analyzed the influence factors of commodity house price in Zhengzhou, based on the related literature at home and abroad, on the basis of Zhengzhou commodity residential house, constructing the price index system model of factors in macro and micro, in the process the author not only consider general influence factors, but also consider the consumer expectations of commodity house price, and land price variable land was quantized by floor price at the first, which makes the empirical results more close to reality.2. Established the multivariate linear regression model, It is concluded that the influence degree of the various factors of commodity housing price and its action mechanism.Through empirical analysis, the author finally found that education facilities, floor, facing and park green etc in micro factors and floor price, inflation rate, the amount of working people and so on in macro factors will have a great impact and fluctuation on commodity house price in Zhengzhou, and confirmed the operation mechanism of the effect factors.3. Used the method of time series analysis to predict the tendency of commercial housing price in Zhengzhou for next three years.On the basis of empirical analysis results on macro influence factors of commodity house price by using time series analysis method, the price tendency of Zhengzhou in three years of future has been predicted, the author found in the next three years, the commodity house price in Zhengzhou will rise about 1000 yuan per square metre each year, this conclusion is consistent with the reality.