Research On Commodity House Price Based On Combination Forecast

Commodity housing as a proportion of the real estate market,whether it is the proportion of its investment in total real estate investment or the proportion of construction area in the total area of real estate construction,occupies a decisive position.The important role of commercial housing in the production and living of residents has led to the discussion of housing prices in many scenarios.The prices of commercial housing are equivalent to housing prices.In the absence of this document,housing prices can be understood as commodity housing prices.The article first studies the basic theory of real estate prices and the development of real estate in important countries or regions.Starting from studying the influencing factors of housing prices,it analyzes the correlation of commodity housing prices,and forecasts the price trend in the next three years using historical housing price data.Due to the particularity of China's real estate market and recent changes in policy,the study of commercial housing prices can provide a basis for residents' purchase decisions and government's macro-control.Based on the actual situation of Zhengzhou City,this paper analyzes the correlation between them and house prices with quantifiable influencing factors to determine the main factors affecting prices.The research results show that for commercial housing in Zhengzhou City,the money supply M2 and the completed residential area are quantifiable factors that affect prices,and the combined forecasts indicate that prices will still rise by 9% over the next three years.Based on the above results,the following conclusions are drawn: First,the rise in the price of commercial housing in Zhengzhou City is mainly driven by investment demand,and the population and per capita disposable income are not enough to have such a rapid rise influencing housing prices.Second,since the macro-control policies in the second half of 2016 have caused housing prices to cool down,the actual situation in Zhengzhou City's overall housing prices will rise slightly higher than the economic growth rate in the future.However,the rate of increase in house prices in central urban areas is far exceeding the average level.As the regulation of policies has not fundamentally changed market expectations,speculation in the market remains strong.The actual research in the market confirms this conclusion.Because the elasticity of supply is small,the market for residential commercial housing still falls short of demand,but in the second-hand housing market,the final transaction volume of housing is very low.This requires the government to abandon the short-term cyclical control policies,to protect the rigid demand and improve the sexual demand to curb speculative demand,and truly establish long-term mechanisms to ensure the long-term healthy development of the real estate market.