| With the rapid economical development in China, heavy chemical industry-led model of economic development which brought out nervous relation between supply and demand of energy and growing pressure on environment and resources gave birth to the biofuel industry development. However, the first generation of biofuel which is used grain as feedstock led to the food insecurity. Meanwhile, the butterfly effect of grain effect threatens the basic life of poor people. Therefore, the current development of biofuel should follow the non-grain route. Cassava is famous as"granary of under ground","King of starch". It can adapt to the drought, high temperature climate and poor soil. It is China's sixth largest tropical crops. As an important starchy crop, cassava plays an important role on the biofuel industry. It became one of the most important raw materials on the transition from first-generation bio-fuels to the second-generation.After study on related literature, historical data analysis, industry research and farmer investigation, this paper analyzed the necessity for the development of biomass energy, cassava status in the bio-fuel industry, cassava biofuel effects and its development prospects with qualitatively and quantitative methods, then obtained research results.Firstly, from the angle of fossil resources, this paper analyzed the inevitability of biofuel on the background of oil crisis.Secondly, from the perspective of comparative advantages of resources, this paper analyzed the strategic position of cassava in biofuel industry. Compare to the other energy crops, results showed that in the transition from the first generation biofuel to the second generation, cassava had comparative advantage in the energy output, cost per unit of land cultivated, the potential of biofuel production, land resources, technology, etc. The position of cassava biofuel was obvious in the bio-liquid fuel, and it had a positive role in promoting on the development of bio-fuel industry.Thirdly, break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis was used in this paper to analyze the impact of the cassava biofuel investment project. After calculated the correlation between gasoline prices and oil prices, this paper measured two scenario (non government subsidy and 1373 RMB/t subsidy) breakeven prices of cassava bio-fuel and oil. And then forecasted the cassava fuel ethanol policy cost from 2010 to 2020. Studies show that from 2010 to 2014, cassava fuel ethanol will be in the red zone benefits which need government subsidies to ensure 5% profit margin while from 2015 to 2020, in the assumption of other factors constant, as the oil prices continued to rise which is rather faster than the cassava price, cassava bio-fuel have feasibility in the policy.Fourth, based on household level, this paper constructed a model that explained the rural households'net income and an input-output function of cassava. The results showed that under the same resource endowment, those who took part in the industry management can obtain higher income than those who decentralized management. It also showed that those who invested more planting area, more fertilizers, and more seeds can acquire higher cassava output. What's more, those where promoted the varieties good laws can improve the cassava production. Fifth, using SWOT method, this paper analyzed the prospects of cassava bio-fuel industry development. The results showed that in the short term, promoting strategy should be adopted for the cassava bio-fuel industry was good for the farmers, enterprises and regional economic development. However, in the long run, facing the threaten of the second-generation biofuel and the limited land resources, cassava bio-fuel industry will not have a competitive advantage, it should consider the WT rategy, and cassava should be used in the cassava starch industry and alcohol processing industry . |
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