Quantitative Study On Driving Mechanism Of Land Use And Land Cover Change In Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomerations

Since the 20th century, global environmental change pays more attention to the research on land change influence and response, Land Use and Land Cover change (LUCC) becomes one of the hot spots of global change study. The driving forces and driving mechanism research is one of the important topics among land use and land cover change study. Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, locating in the central south part of China, is the combining zone of Jing-Guang economic belt, pan pearl river delta economic circle and the Yangtze river belts, and it is the synthetically reform testing district of national resource conservation and environment friendly society construction, the economic develops rapidly, at the same time, land use and land cover also greatly changes in the area. Therefore the driving mechanism study on Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration can provide scientific basis for rational utilization and optimized allocation of land resources and land management planning.The core region of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration is taken as the study area in this paper, and this study applies the topography and social data and Logistic regression to construct the construction land, farmland and forest models on seven spatial scales of 60m×60m,90m×90m,120m×120m,150m×150m,180m×180m,210m×210m,240m×240m respectively, in order to investigate the scale effect of land use and land cover change, determine the optimal scale and make qualitative and quantitative analysis of driving mechanism. The conclusions are as follows:(1)The factors of land use and land cover change are different as the scales change, in this study area, when the scale is 180m×180m, the goodness-of-fit for construction land, farmland and forest reaches the highest (the ROC value of construction land, farmland and forest is 0.793, 0.697 and 0.722 respectively).(2)The distances to the main road, distances to the city loop, distances to the government have great influence on the construction land changes. The distances to the main road, city loop and government reduce 1km, the probability of construction land change will increase 1.28 times, 1.09 times and 1.03 times.(3)DEM, distances to the city loop have an important impact on the farmland changes. The farmland change probability decreases with the increase of elevation and loop distance, the construction land expansion mainly distributed in the flat area and the surroundings of urban loop, so the farmland was occupied to meet this demand.(4)The forest change is relevant with distances to the main road, distances to the government, distances to the city loop. The closer to main road, government and city loop, the greater forest changes, because construction land expands at the area close to main road, government and city loop, other land must be conversed to meet this demand.