Study On Generation Mechanism And Model Of Chinese Freight Transportation Demand

With the constant deepening of reform and opening-up of our country and completion of socialist market economy system, freight transportation is playing an important role in producing, consumption leading, economic restructuring and style changing of economic increase. Every stratagem about transportation is on the basic of analysis and forecast of the transportation demand. There is transportation demand before transportation and development of transportation industry. The analysis of transportation demand is the basic of the construction of foundation establishment and activity in transportation.The paper has analyzed why people do traffic and transportation from human original demand, in the system point of view, the paper has analyzed generation mechanism of transportation demand, emphasized several important factors of freight transportation demand, tried to study the generation mechanism of freight transportation demand from different points. Taking our country as an example, the paper has analyzed the characteristics of freight transportation demand. At present stage, with the data handling and analyzing, the paper has investigated the factors which affect freight transportation demand of our country in four macroscopical aspects which are the development level of national economy, industrialization stage, the development degree of traffic and transportation, and the information development.The shortage of usual forecasting method on freight transportation demand has been pointed out in the paper, then, the idea of system dynamics has been imported so as to design the model of freight transportation demand. With the software STELLA of system dynamics the paper mainly discussed the demand model which could combine qualitative mechanism analysis with quantitative forecasting so as to provide the carrier which could resolve how much the freight transportation demand would come into being.