Research On Saturation Of Community Commercial Space

As China's continuous control of residential real estate, commercial real estate development has become a new hot spot. As an important component of commercial real estate, community real estate has a strong market potential. Therefore, research on community commercial saturation, can effectively help the community to pre-business planning or post-adjustment, for academic research, government planners, developers planning stage, investors return on investment, leasing business to achieve sustained business and consumer enjoy the convenience of a comprehensive community services have important practical significance.Application of documentary research, market research and case analysis to explore the scientific computing community saturated area. To verify the applicability and feasibility of this method, Z community in northeast of Zhabei District, Shanghai was selected to calculate its community commercial saturation space. The research has been conducted in three months and made 600 questionnaires. It has an effective effect for real estate companies and retail companies.Using the data collected by market research, to calculate the effective purchasing power of catchment and community, combined with the existing commercial space to predict potential affordable community commercial space. Then using Black model which has modified by Huff model, through a multi-Factors analysis, calculated catchment radiation to community residents, which is "grabbing power". The combination of above calculation is the certain community commercial saturation space.The first chapter introduces the research background, literature review, research significance, methods and innovations. Research background:under the control of residential development, commercial real estate is becoming a new hot spot; community real estate is becoming the focus of development; community real estate is still facing many problems. Literature review described the estimation method of community real estate which is mainly based on qualitative estimates. About significance in the study area, the paper describes the positive significance for academic research, government planning, the developer pre-planning, retail investors.The second chapter described the theory of community real estate and radiation theory. Firstly, this paper introduced the definition, classification, characteristics and effect of community real. About radiation of shopping district, constituent elements, purchasing power, five calculation methods of commercial space are introduced, including forecasting the overall commercial space, retail space prediction method, Rayleigh model combined with the retail attractiveness of Huff model, businesses saturation theory, suitable for commercial real estate and advanced prediction formula.The third chapter describes the factors of community real estate space, and saturation model. The method is:data collection through market research, calculate the effective purchasing power, combined with the existing business area to predict the potential affordable community commercial space, then combined Black model which was transformed through Huff model, analysis by multiple factors, calculated the streaming capacity of community residents using radiation theory, which is "grabbing power". Finally, sum of various types of saturated area, is the saturated area of the business community as a whole.Chapter Four picked Z community in northeast of Zhabei District, Shanghai, to use district research, industry research and survey of 600 questionnaires to obtain data, calculated: purchasing power of Z community is 158,351,700 RMB per month, the current maximum acceptable retail is 314,815 square meters, Z's effective purchasing power share is 11.2%, to calculate Z community can withstand up to 35,259 square meters of retail space. As a number of shopping malls and supermarket are existing, so it needs to calculate the grab power. Through 600 questionnaires research, we selected five hypermarkets around community, with 21 retail measure, by multivariate regression analysis model, to get 14 significant factors. Assume that the community retail is in average of 14 retail stores, using the Black model to calculate the Z community's retail attraction takes 16.35%, which is 5765 square meters, which means the community can afford a medium-sized supermarket.Chapter Five is the conclusion part, describes the research ideas, research significance and deficiencies. Through this study, saturated community real estate space can be scientific computed, in which the effective collection of data is critical, for the calculation of purchasing power, business district and the community space can be continue to further studied and refinement to improve the accuracy of the prediction. The continue development of commercial real estate community has important practical significance.