Research Into The Rail Freight Forecasting By The Grey Systems Theory

The railway transportation network is the backbone of the entire comprehensive transportation network and the railway passenger transportation is an important aspect in the research of national passenger transportation development strategy. In face of the changeable passenger transportation market, it is quite necessary to study the short-term and mid-term volume of freight forecasting methods so as to satisfy the needs of railway departments of all levels in their daily organization of passenger transportation, the needs in making recent traffic planning, arranging transport capacity and making transportation policies.In the research into short-term and mid-term volume of freight forecasting, it is necessary to study the methods suitable for the short-term and mid-term forecast of volume of freight and analyze the applicable conditions and limitations in order to provide references for the selection of methods and models in the short-term and mid-term forecast of volume of freight . In the meanwhile, stress should be laid on improving the preciseness of railway volume of freight forecast. With the theories and methods relating to system engineering applied, the four typical forecasting models, namely, time series trend projection method, influence factors method, Delphi method, and four-stage method are firstly summarized and analyzed in the paper hereunder, including analysis of the theories of each model, discussion on the merits and demerits of each model and selection of a suitable forecasting model. Secondly, the relations of all the factors that influence railway passenger traffic in Henan are researched by the grey relational analysis method, that is, the profound and careful analysis and research are conducted regarding the subordination of all the correlative factors that influence the demand of railway passenger traffic and an appropriate forecasting model is selected concerning the future value of the correlative factors. Finally, the GM (1, 1) and GM (1, N) forecasting models on passenger traffic are established on that basis to forecast, analyze and compare passenger traffic changes so that the changes of considerable correlative factors and their influences on the development of the demand for passenger traffic could be found out in a more conclusive and thorough way, whereby a relatively rational forecasting model as regards railway passenger traffic in Henan could be formed to predict the railway passenger traffic of Henan in five years to come.In the principle of qualitative analysis plus quantitative counting, word arguing plus graphics and general investigation plus case analysis, the comprehensive and in-depth research is conducted on the development trend of the railway passenger transport in Henan at various levels and different angles by integrating theory with practice, and thus, a reliable and effective forecast is made at last.