The Applied Research On Medium And Long-term Economic And Social Development Plan Theory And Methods

Medium and long-term economic and social development plan is more than five years of economic and social development planning. For developing countries such as China, forecasting and planning long-term development prospects is necessary, it links the recent development and long-term development , addresses major strategic issues and security needs of the continuity of constructive activities, so Medium and long term planning in guiding national economic and social development is of great significance.This paper review the medium and long-term economic and social plan theory and methods of research results, and focus on the theory and methods which previous studies related to rarely, and then make "reform the Pearl River Delta Region Development Plan (2008-2020) "for example, with "Pearl River Delta Program, "the guiding ideology and development strategy, the " implementation of the main objectives of the 2012 annual breakdown sheet "in the index system for analysis and correction, to obtain a more scientific and practical operational Index system, and the use of modern heuristic algorithm BP neural network model of the revised index system to predict the index value. At last, Compare the predicted results with "the implementation of main objectives of the 2012 annual breakdown sheet". The conclusion is: the next few years the level of the Pearl River Delta information, infrastructure, development of several aspects of people's living standards will be faster than in the industrial structure, regional differences between urban and rural areas, independent innovation capacity, the four aspects of the ecological environment slightly behind the development of other aspects, the Pearl River Delta region in order to ensure the smooth progress of the annual target to reach, we should strengthen the construction of these four aspects.From the economic theory and methods of long-term planning perspective, the first time "implementation of the main objectives of the 2012 annual breakdown sheet" in the index system to analyze problems and propose the development process fully reflects the new Pearl River Delta Index system. Another innovation of this work is to use the method of BP neural network model to predict the value of the index, trying to overcome the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods, drawn more scientific index forecasts.