The Applied Research On The Theories And Methods Of Medium And Long-term Economic And Social Development Plan

As the medium and long-term plans of economic and social development is the key factor of major strategic issues, also it acts as the bond between medium and long-term development. Medium and long-term plan consists of the preparation, implementation and monitoring of planning. With the economic and social develop more and more rapidly, its demand for scientific, regulatory requirements and the feasibility increases. In this paper, we make a systematic study on each aspect of medium and long-term planning, so that it would provide references.Firstly, the theory of the medium and long-term plans of economic and social development is given systematical study in this dissertation, and the compilation method has been sorted out. Second, a case study of "Reform the Pearl River Delta Region Development Plan(2008-2020) ", by using the method of artificial neural networks, the paper attempts to analyze the completion status for the first stage(2008-2012), and tries to estimate achievement of the goal of the second stage(2012-2020). Furthermore, combining with the core idea and strategic target to discuss the shortfalls and revision of the "the implementation of ‘Outline’ main objectives of the 2012 annual breakdown sheet" based on the principles of structuring system. To make it more concise, we substitute "Reform the Pearl River Delta Region Development Plan(2008-2020) " for example, with "Pearl River Delta Program ", "the implementation of ‘Outline’ main objectives of the 2012 annual breakdown sheet " with " implementation of the ‘Outline’ ".It is found that in the first stage, only 7 of 14 indicators’ deviation range of the actual value are less than 5%, indicating that the target indicators need to be improved. The forecast results of the second stage show that Pearl River Delta is expected to enjoy a good momentum in the next few years. But it still need to make efforts to resolve the problems of uneven indexes and overlapped indexes. It suggested that the study on medium and longterm planning should be more scientific, more normative and more feasible.